Evaluation of Nonstationarity in Annual Maximum Flood Series and the Associations with Large-scale Climate Patterns and Human Activities

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• 作者：Jianzhu Li ; Xueyang Liu ; Fulong Chen
• 关键词：Nonstationarity ; Annual maximum flood peak ; Climatic indices ; Human ; induced indices
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：29
• 期：5
• 页码：1653-1668
• 全文大小：730 KB
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• 作者单位：Jianzhu Li (1)
  Xueyang Liu (1)
  Fulong Chen (1)
  
  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

Recent evidences of the impact of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, identification of nonstationarity was conducted in the form of both trend and change point in the mean of the annual maximum flood magnitudes, using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test, respectively in Wangkuai reservoir watershed, China. The annual maximum flood series exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the timing of change point was detected in 1979, which was consistent with the construction of large numbers of check dams and small hydraulic structures. A correlation test (Pearson correlation test) between large-scale oceanic-atmospheric patterns (El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Oscillation (AO)) and annual maximum flood peaks was adopted to assess the climatic causes of nonstationary flood series. It was found that NPO, NAO and AO had significant correlations with flood peak, but ENSO and PDO could not explain the variations of flood peak. In the case of human-induced nonstationarity, we proposed 2 new indices to represent the effect of human activities on flood. The new indices were proposed based on the storage capacity and drainage area of the large numbers of check dams and small hydraulic structures which were estimated with no observed data. The identification of nonstationarity for flood series and the climatic and human-induced causes could provide useful information in nonstationary flood frequency analysis.