Ovarian cancer screening based on mixture change-point model

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Chenchen Zou (1)
  Xiangzhong Fang (1)
  Guanghe Zhai (1)
  
  1. School of Mathematics ; Peking University ; Beijing ; 100871 ; China
  
• 关键词：Change ; point mixture model ; longitudinal data analysis ; maximum likelihood estimation ; ovarian caner screening
• 刊名：Journal of Systems Science and Complexity
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：April 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：28
• 期：2
• 页码：471-488
• 全文大小：279 KB
• 参考文献：1. Havrilesk, L J, Whitehead, C M, Rubatt, C M, Cheek, R L, Groelke, J, He, Q, Malinowski, D P, Fischer, T J, Berchuck, A (2008) Evaluation of biomarker panels for early stage ovarian cancer detection and monitoring for disease recurrence. Gynecologic Oncology 110: pp. 374-382 CrossRef
  2. Li, S, Qin, X, He, W (2005) Evaluation of serum CA125 in literatures of ovarian neoplasms based on evidence-based medicine. Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine 28: pp. 209-211
  3. Andersen, R M, Goff, B A, Lowe, K A, Scholler, N, Bergan, L, Drescher, C W, Paley, P, Urban, N (2010) Use of a symptom index, CA125, and HE4 to predict ovarian cancer. Gynecologic Oncology 116: pp. 378-383 CrossRef
  4. Kong, Z, Zhang, Y (2000) The high-risk factors and early diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Journal of Oncology 6: pp. 244-246
  5. Jacobs, I, Bast, R C (1989) The CA125 tumor-associated antigen: A review of the literature. Human Reproduction 4: pp. 1-12 CrossRef
  6. Cheng, Y, Chang, X, Ye, X (2009) Prediction of ovarian cancer in patients with pelvic mass using combined assays of HE4 and CA125 markers. Progress in Obstetrics and Gynecology 18: pp. 915-919
  7. Moss, E L, Hollingworth, J, Reynolds, T M (2005) The role of CA125 in clinical practice. Journal of Clinical Pathology 58: pp. 318-312 CrossRef
  8. Li, W (2005) Research progress in ovarian cancer diagnosis. Chinese Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 40: pp. 496-498
  9. Jacobs, I, Oram, D, Fairbanks, J, Turner, J, Frost, C, Grudzinskas, J G (1990) A risk of malignancy index incorporating CA125, ultrasound and menopausal status for the accurate preoperative diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 97: pp. 922-929
  10. Buys, S S, Partridge, E, Black, A (2011) Effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality: The prostate, lung, colorectal and ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening randomized controlled trial. Journal of the American Medical Association 305: pp. 2295-2303 CrossRef
  11. Campbell, S, Bourne, T (1992) Ultrasound screening for ovarian cancer. British Medical Journal 70: pp. 41-55
  12. Nagell, J R, DePriest, P D, Gallion, H H, Pavlik, E J (1993) Ovarian cancer screening. Cancer 71: pp. 1523-1528 CrossRef
  13. Patrick, O B, Chana, P (2009) The preclinical natural history of serous ovarian cancer: Defining the target for early detection. Plos Medicine 67: pp. e1000114
  14. Hellstrom, I, Raycraft, J, Hayden-Ledbetter, M, Ledbetter, J A, Schummer, M, McIntosh, M, Drescher, C, Urban, N, Hellstrom, K E (2003) The HE4 (WFDC2) protein is a biomarker for ovarian carcinoma. Cancer Research 63: pp. 3695-3700
  15. Galgano, M T, Hampton, G M, Frierson, H F (2006) Comprehensive analysis of HE4 expression in normal and malignant human tissues. Modern Pathology 19: pp. 847-853
  16. Moore, R G, Brown, A K, Miller, C M, Skates, S, Allard, J W, Verch, T, Steinhoff, M, Messerlian, G, DiSilvestro, P, Granai, C O, Bast, C O (2008) The use of multiple novel tumor biomarkers for the detection of ovarian carcinoma in patients with a pelvic mass. Gynecologic Oncology 108: pp. 402-408 CrossRef
  17. Skates, S J, Pauler, D K, Jacobs, I J (2001) Screening based on the risk of cancer calculation from Bayesian hierarchical changepoint and mixture models of longitudinal markers. Journal of the American Statistical Association 96: pp. 429-439 CrossRef
  18. Barndorff-Nielsen, O E (1991) Modified signed log likelihood ratio. Biometrika 78: pp. 557-563 CrossRef
  19. Barndorff-Nielsen, O E (1986) Inference on full or partial parameters based on the standardized signed log likelihood ratio. Biometrika 73: pp. 307-322
  20. Skates S J, Jacobs I J, Macdonald N, Menon U, and Rosenthal, Estimated duration of preclinical ovarian cancer from longitudinal CA 125 levels, / Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting, 1999, 40(43).
  21. Jong, R S, Hofstra, L S, Willemse, P H, Bruijn, H W, Vries, E G, Boonstra, H, Mulder, H N (1997) Effect of low-dose oral etoposide on serum CA125 in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Gynecologic Oncology 66: pp. 197-201 CrossRef
  22. Riedinger, J M, Coudert, B, Barillot, I, Buffenoir, G, Mayer, F, Fargeot, F, Cuisenier, J, Guerrin, J (1997) Clinical value of the estimation of growth kinetics of primary cancer recurrences by CA125 doubling time. Bulletin of Cancer 84: pp. 855-860
  23. Kirkpatrick, S, Gelatt, C D, Vecchi, M P (1983) Optimization by simulated annealing. Science 220: pp. 671-680 CrossRef
  24. Moore, R G, McMeekin, S D, Brown, A K, DiSilvestro, P, Miller, C M, Allard, J W, Gajewski, W, Kurman, R, Bast, R C, Skates, S J (2009) A novel multiple marker bioassay utilizing HE4 and CA125 for the prediction of ovarian cancer in patients with a pelvic mass. Gynecologic Oncology 112: pp. 40-46 CrossRef
  25. Anderson, G L, McIntosh, M, Wu, L, Barnett, M, Goodman, G, Thorpe, J D, Bergan, L, Thornquist, M D, Scholler, N, Kim, N, O鈥橞riant, K, Drescher, C, Urban, N (2010) Assessing lead time of selected ovarian cancer biomarkers: A nested case-control study. Journal of National Cancer Institute 102: pp. 26-38 CrossRef
  26. Sen, P K, Singer, J M (1993) Large Sample Methods in Statistics. Chapman & Hall Inc, New York-London CrossRef
  
• 刊物类别：Mathematics and Statistics
• 刊物主题：Systems Theory and Control
  Applied Mathematics and Computational Methods of Engineering
  Operations Research/Decision Theory
  Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
  
• 出版者：Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, co-published with Springer
• ISSN：1559-7067

文摘

Ovarian cancer is one of the most deadly female genital malignant tumors in many regions while an effective early screening strategy can save numerous lives. CA125 and HE4 are tumor markers validated efficacious as well as most commonly used in recent screening research of ovarian cancer. In this paper, the authors construct a change-point and mixture model on the basis of longitudinal CA125 and HE4 levels and estimated parameters using maximum likelihood method with the preclinical duration assumed right-censored, which is more adaptive and yields comparable results in comparison to the Bayesian approach raised by Skates. Consistency of estimators is proved. The authors also run a 5-year simulation of sequential screening by calculating the risk of cancer and hypothesis testing the true incidence time respectively. Results show that diagnosis based on hypothesis test performs better in early detection.