Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters

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• 作者：Gianluca Pescaroli ; David Alexander
• 关键词：Cascading disasters ; Cascading events ; Critical infrastructure ; Panarchy ; Interdependency ; Vulnerability
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：82
• 期：1
• 页码：175-192
• 全文大小：812 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Cascading effects and cascading disasters are emerging fields of scientific research. The widespread diffusion of functional networks increases the complexity of interdependent systems and their vulnerability to large-scale disruptions. Although in recent years studies of interconnections and chain effects have improved significantly, cascading phenomena are often associated with the “toppling domino metaphor”, or with high-impact, low-probability events. This paper aimed to support a paradigm shift in the state of the art by proposing a new theoretical approach to cascading events in terms of their root causes and lack of predictability. By means of interdisciplinary theory building, we demonstrate how cascades reflect the ways in which panarchies collapse. We suggest that the vulnerability of critical infrastructure may orientate the progress of events in relation to society’s feedback loops, rather than merely being an effect of natural triggers. Our conclusions point to a paradigm shift in the preparedness phase that could include escalation points and social nodes, but that also reveals a brand new field of research for disaster scholars.