EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
详细信息 查看全文
- 作者：Daniela Jacob (1) (2)
Juliane Petersen (1) (2)
Bastian Eggert (1)
Antoinette Alias (3)
Ole B?ssing Christensen (4)
Laurens M. Bouwer (20) (5)
Alain Braun (3)
Augustin Colette (6)
Michel Déqué (3)
Goran Georgievski (7)
Elena Georgopoulou (8)
Andreas Gobiet (9)
Laurent Menut (10)
Grigory Nikulin (11)
Andreas Haensler (1)
Nils Hempelmann (1)
Colin Jones (11)
Klaus Keuler (7)
Sari Kovats (12)
Nico Kr?ner (13)
Sven Kotlarski (13)
Arne Kriegsmann (1)
Eric Martin (3)
Erik van Meijgaard (14)
Christopher Moseley (1) (2)
Susanne Pfeifer (1)
Swantje Preuschmann (1)
Christine Radermacher (2)
Kai Radtke (7)
Diana Rechid (1) (2)
Mark Rounsevell (15)
Patrick Samuelsson (11)
Samuel Somot (3)
Jean-Francois Soussana (16)
Claas Teichmann (1) (2)
Riccardo Valentini (17) (18)
Robert Vautard (19)
Bj?rn Weber (1)
Pascal Yiou (19) - 关键词：Regional climate change ; Impact indices ; EURO ; CORDEX ; Heat wave ; Heavy precipitation ; Dry spells
- 刊名：Regional Environmental Change
- 出版年：2014
- 出版时间：April 2014
- 年：2014
- 卷：14
- 期：2
- 页码：563-578
- 全文大小：16,473 KB
- 参考文献：1. Alcamo J, Moreno JM, Novaky B, Bindi M, Corobov R, Devoy RJN, Giannakopoulos C, Martin E, Olesen JE, Shvidenko A (2007) Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 541-80
2. Christensen OB, Christensen JH, Machenhauer B, Botzet M (1998) Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia—Present climate. J Climate 11:3204-229
3. Colin J, Déqué M, Radu R, Somot S (2010) Sensitivity study of heavy precipitations in Limited Area Model climate simulation: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique. Tellus A 62:591-04. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00467.x
4. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193-12. doi:10.3354/cr019193 CrossRef
5. Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2006) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. Bulletin World Meteorol Organ 58:175-83
6. Herrmann M, Somot S, Calmanti S, Dubois C, Sevault F (2011) Representation of daily wind speed spatial and temporal variability and intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:1983-001. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1983-2011
7. Hewitt CD, Griggs DJ (2004) Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Eos 85:566 CrossRef
8. IPCC SRES (2000) In: Naki?enovi? N, Swart R (eds) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK
9. Jacob D, Elizalde A, Haensler A, Hagemann S, Kumar P, Podzun R, Rechid D, Remedio AR, Saeed F, Sieck K, Teichmann C, Wilhelm C (2012) Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions. Atmosphere 3:181-99. doi:10.3390/atmos3010181 CrossRef
10. Kotlarski S, Keuler K, Christensen OB, Déqué M, Gobiet A, G?rgen K, Jacob D, Lüthi D, van Meijgaard E, Nikulin G, Suklitsch M, Teichmann C, Vautard R, Warrach-Sagi K (2013) Regional climate modelling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the Euro-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Climate Dynamics. In prep
11. Kupiainen M, Samuelsson P, Jones C, Jansson C, Willén U, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, Wang S, D?scher R (2011) Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4. Rossby Centre Newsletter, June
12. Meijgaard E van, Van Ulft LH, Lenderink G, de Roode SR, Wipfler L, Boers R, Timmermans RMA (2012) Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of Western Europe. Climate changes Spatial Planning publication: KvR 054/12, ISBN/EAN 978-90-8815-046-3, pp 44
13. Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG, Muecher CA, Watkins JW (2005) A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:549-63 CrossRef
14. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-56. doi:10.1038/nature08823 CrossRef
15. Pfeifer S, Gobiet A, H?nsler A, Mudelsee M, Rechid D, Ries H, Teichmann C, Weber B, Jacob D (2013) Mapping the robustness of regional climate change information. J App Meteorol Climatol. In review
16. Rockel B, Will A, Hense A (2008) Special issue regional climate modelling with COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z 17:347-48. doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309 CrossRef
17. Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R (2012) Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Change 2:248-53. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1385 CrossRef
18. Samuelsson P, Jones C, Willén U, Ullerstig A, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jansson C, Kjellstr?m E, Nikulin G, Wyser K (2011) The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A 63:4-3. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x CrossRef
19. Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Duda DMBMG, Huang X-Y, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3. NCAR Technical note 475
20. Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann RW (2006) How often does it rain? J Clim 19: 916-34. doi:10.1175/JCLI3672.1
21. Taylor K, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485-98. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 CrossRef
22. Van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
23. van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Matsui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) Representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109:5-1. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z CrossRef
24. Vautard R, Gobiet A, Jacob D, Belda M, Colette A, Déqué M, Fernández J, García-Díez M, Goergen K, Güttler I, Halenka T, Karacostas T, Katragkou E, Keuler K, Kotlarski S, Mayer S, van Meijgaard E, Nikulin G, Patar?i? M, Scinocca J, Sobolowski S, Suklitsch M, Teichmann C, Warrach-Sagi K, Wulfmeyer V, Yiou P (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z - 作者单位：Daniela Jacob (1) (2)
Juliane Petersen (1) (2)
Bastian Eggert (1)
Antoinette Alias (3)
Ole B?ssing Christensen (4)
Laurens M. Bouwer (20) (5)
Alain Braun (3)
Augustin Colette (6)
Michel Déqué (3)
Goran Georgievski (7)
Elena Georgopoulou (8)
Andreas Gobiet (9)
Laurent Menut (10)
Grigory Nikulin (11)
Andreas Haensler (1)
Nils Hempelmann (1)
Colin Jones (11)
Klaus Keuler (7)
Sari Kovats (12)
Nico Kr?ner (13)
Sven Kotlarski (13)
Arne Kriegsmann (1)
Eric Martin (3)
Erik van Meijgaard (14)
Christopher Moseley (1) (2)
Susanne Pfeifer (1)
Swantje Preuschmann (1)
Christine Radermacher (2)
Kai Radtke (7)
Diana Rechid (1) (2)
Mark Rounsevell (15)
Patrick Samuelsson (11)
Samuel Somot (3)
Jean-Francois Soussana (16)
Claas Teichmann (1) (2)
Riccardo Valentini (17) (18)
Robert Vautard (19)
Bj?rn Weber (1)
Pascal Yiou (19)
1. Climate Service Center (CSC), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095, Hamburg, Germany
2. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM), Bundesstr. 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
3. Météo-France/CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-GAME), 42, Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex 1, France
4. Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark
20. Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands
5. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
6. Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), 60550, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
7. Environmental Meteorology, Brandenburg University of Technology, Burger Chaussee 2, 03013, Cottbus, Germany
8. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development (IERSD), National Observatory of Athens, 118 10, Thissio, Greece
9. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010, Graz, Austria
10. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (IPSL), Ecole Polytechnique, 91128, Palaiseau Cedex, France
11. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Folkborgsv?gen 17, 601 76, Norrk?ping, Sweden
12. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9 SH, UK
13. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universit?tsstra?e 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
14. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Wilhelminalaan 10, 3732 GK, De Bilt, The Netherlands
15. David Kinloch Michie Chair of Rural Economy & Environmental Sustainability, Institute of Geography & the Lived Environment, School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
16. INRA, UR874, Grassland Ecosystems Research (UREP), Clermont-Ferrand, France
17. Department of Forest Science and Environment, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy
18. Euro–Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Via De Lellis, 01100, Viterbo, Italy
19. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France - ISSN：1436-378X
文摘
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5?km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.