Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

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• 作者：Woo Seong Jo ; Hwang-Yong Kim ; Beom Jun Kim
• 关键词：Population dynamics ; Pest spreading ; Lattice model ; Climate change ; RCP scenarios
• 刊名：Journal of the Korean Physical Society
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：70
• 期：1
• 页码：108-115
• 全文大小：
• 刊物主题：Physics, general; Theoretical, Mathematical and Computational Physics; Particle and Nuclear Physics;
• 出版者：The Korean Physical Society
• ISSN：1976-8524
• 卷排序：70

文摘

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.