Mean and variance of population density and temporal Taylor’s law in stochastic stage-structured density-dependent models of exploited fish populations

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Masami Fujiwara ; Joel E. Cohen
• 关键词：Coefficient of variation ; Density dependence ; Environmental stochasticity ; Fluctuation scaling ; Stage ; structured population model ; Taylor’s law
• 刊名：Theoretical Ecology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：May 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：8
• 期：2
• 页码：175-186
• 全文大小：1,291 KB
• 参考文献：Anderson RM, Gordon DM, Crawley MJ, Hassell MP (1982) Variability in the abundance of animal and plant-species. Nature 296:245-48. doi:10.-038/-96245a0 View Article
  Anderson CNK et al (2008) Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452:835-39. doi:10.-038/?nature06851 View Article PubMed
  Ballantyne F (2005) The upper limit for the exponent of Taylor’s power law is a consequence of deterministic population growth. Evol Ecol Res 7:1213-220
  Beissinger SR, McCullough DR (2002) Population viability analysis. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
  Beverton RJH, Holt SJ (1957) On the dynamics of exploited fish populations. Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, London, republished by Chapman & Hall in 1993
  Caswell H (2001) Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation. Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland
  Cohen JE (2013) Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling and the growth-rate theorem. Theor Popul Biol 88:94-00. doi:10.-016/?j.?tpb.-013.-4.-02 View Article PubMed
  Cohen JE (2014) Taylor’s law and abrupt biotic change in a smoothly changing environment. Theor Ecol 7:77-6. doi:10.-007/?s12080-013-0199-z View Article
  Cohen JE, Plank MJ, Law R (2012a) Taylor’s law and body size in exploited marine ecosystems. Ecol Evol 2:3168-178. doi:10.-002/?ece3.-18 View Article PubMed Central PubMed
  Cohen JE, Xu M, Schuster WSF (2012b) Allometric scaling of population variance with mean body size is predicted from Taylor’s law and density-mass allometry. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:15829-5834. doi:10.-073/?pnas.-212883109 View Article PubMed Central PubMed
  Cohen JE, Xu M, Schuster WSF (2013) Stochastic multiplicative population growth predicts and interprets Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling. Proc R Soc B 280:10. doi:10.-098/?rspb.-012.-955 View Article
  Eisler Z, Bartos I, Kertesz J (2008) Fluctuation scaling in complex systems: Taylor’s law and beyond. Adv Phys 57:89-42. doi:10.-080/-001873080189304- View Article
  Fromentin JM, Powers JE (2005) Atlantic bluefin tuna: population dynamics, ecology, fisheries and management. Fish Fish 6:281-06. doi:10.-111/?j.-467-2979.-005.-0197.?x View Article
  Fujiwara M (2012) Demographic diversity and sustainable fisheries. PLoS One 7:14. doi:10.-371/?journal.?pone.-034556
  Fujiwara M, Mohr MS, Greenberg A (2014) The effects of disease-induced juvenile mortality on the transient and asymptotic population dynamics of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). PLoS One 9:10. doi:10.-371/?journal.?pone.-085464
  Gurney WSC, Nisbet RM, Lawton JH (1980) Nicholson’s blowflies revisited. Nature 287:17-1. doi:10.-038/-87017a0 View Article
  Hilborn R, Walters CJ (1992) Quantitative fisheries stock assessment: choice, dynamics & uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, BostonView Article
  Hsieh CH, Reiss CS, Hunter JR, Beddington JR, May RM, Sugihara G (2006) Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature 443:859-62. doi:10.-038/?nature05232 View Article PubMed
  Jiang J, DeAngelis DL, Zhang B, Cohen JE (2014) Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor’s law. Ecol Model. doi:10.-016/?j.?ecolmodel.-014.-6.-22
  Jury EI (1974) Inners and stability of dynamic systems. Wiley, New York
  Keeling MJ (2000) Simple stochastic models and their power-law type behaviour. Theor Popul Biol 58:21-1. doi:10.-006/?tpbi.-000.-475 View Article PubMed
  Kilpatrick AM, Ives AR (2003) Species interactions can explain Taylor’s power law for ecological time series. Nature 422:65-8. doi:10.-038/?nature01471 View Article PubMed
  McArdle BH, Gaston KJ, Lawton JH (1990) Variation in the size of animal populations—patterns, problems and artifacts. J Anim Ecol 59:439-54. doi:10.-307/-873 View Article
  Neubert MG, Caswell H (2000) Density-dependent vital rates and their population dynamic consequences. J Math Biol 41:103-21View Article PubMed
  Perry JN (1994) Chaotic dynamics can generate Taylors power-law. Proc R Soc B 257:221-26. doi:10.-098/?rspb.-994.-118 View Article
  Ralston S, O’Farrell MR (2008) Spatial variation in fishing intensity and its effect on yield. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:588-99. doi:10.-139/?f07-174 View Article
  Ramsayer J, Fellous S, Cohen JE, Hochberg ME (2012) Taylor’s Law holds in experimental bacterial populations but competition does not influence the slope. Biol Lett 8:316-19. doi:10.-098/?rsbl.-011.-895 View Article PubMed Central PubMed
  Taylor LR (1961) Aggregation, variance and mean. Nature 189:732-35. doi:10.-038/-89732a0 View Article
  Taylor LR, Woiwod IP (1980) Temporal stability as a density-dependent species characteristic. J Anim Ecol 49:209-24. doi:10.-307/-285 View Article
  Taylor LR, Woiwod IP (1982) Comparative synoptic dynamics. 1. Relationships betwee
• 作者单位：Masami Fujiwara (1)
  Joel E. Cohen (2)
  
  1. Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2258, USA
  2. Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller and Columbia Universities, 1230 York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY, 10065, USA
  
• 刊物主题：Theoretical Ecology/Statistics; Plant Sciences; Zoology;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1874-1746

文摘

How does fishing affect the mean and variance of population density in the presence of environmental fluctuations? Several recent authors have suggested that an increasing ratio of standard deviation to mean (coefficient of variation, or CV) in population density indicates declining population stability. We investigated the relationship between the mean and variance of population density in stochastic, density-dependent, stage-structured fish population models. Our models included either compensatory or overcompensatory density dependence affecting either fertility or juvenile survival. Environmental stochasticity affected either juvenile survival (when density dependence affected fertility) or fertility (when density dependence affected juvenile survival). The mean and variance of population density were compared as fishing mortality changed. In some cases, the relationship between the natural logarithms of mean and variance is linear under some parameters (life history strategy) of some models (the type of density dependence and the timing of density dependence and stochasticity), supporting Taylor’s law. In other cases, the relationship can be non-linear, especially when density dependence is overcompensatory, and depends on the stage observed. For example, the variance of adult density may increase with its mean while the variance of juvenile density of the same population may decline, or vice versa. The sequence in which individuals experience stochasticity and density dependence matters because density dependence can attenuate or magnify the fluctuation. In conclusion, the use of the CV as a proxy for population instability is not appropriate, and the CV of population density has to be interpreted carefully for other purposes.