Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

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• 作者：Benjamin S. Rashford ; Richard M. Adams ; JunJie Wu…
• 关键词：Climate change ; Wetland modeling ; Cover cycle ; Hydroperiod ; Land ; use change
• 刊名：Regional Environmental Change
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：16
• 期：2
• 页码：515-526
• 全文大小：1,114 KB
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• 作者单位：Benjamin S. Rashford (1)
  Richard M. Adams (2)
  JunJie Wu (2)
  Richard A. Voldseth (3)
  Glenn R. Guntenspergen (4)
  Brett Werner (5)
  W. Carter Johnson (6)
  
  1. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, Dept. 3354, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, WY, 82071, USA
  2. Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA
  3. School of Natural Resource Sciences, North Dakota State University, Dept. 7680, Fargo, ND, 58108, USA
  4. US Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Suite 4039, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA
  5. Environmental Studies Program, Centre College, Danville, KY, 40422, USA
  6. Department of Natural Resource Management, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, 57007, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Geoecology and Natural Processes
  Geology
  Oceanography
  Geography
  Nature Conservation
  Regional Science
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-378X

文摘

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.