Relationships between rain and displacements of an active earthflow: a data-driven approach by EPRMOGA

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：R. Vassallo ; A. Doglioni ; G. M. Grimaldi ; C. Di Maio ; V. Simeone
• 关键词：Landslide ; Displacement ; Rainfall ; Data ; driven model ; EPRMOGA
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：81
• 期：3
• 页码：1467-1482
• 全文大小：1,697 KB
• 参考文献：Calcaterra S, Cesi C, Di Maio C, Gambino P, Merli K, Vallario M, Vassallo R (2012) Surface displacements of two landslides evaluated by GPS and inclinometer systems: a case study in Southern Apennines, Italy. Nat Hazards 61:257–266. doi:10.​1007/​s11069-010-9633-3 CrossRef
  Cascini L, Versace P (1986) Eventi pluviometrici e movimenti franosi. In: Proceedings XVI Italian geotechnical conference, Bologna, Italy, 14–16 May, vol 3, pp 171–184
  Comegna L, Picarelli L, Bucchignani E, Mercogliano P (2013) Potential effects of incoming climate changes on the behaviour of slow active landslides in clay. Landslides 10:373–391. doi:10.​1007/​s10346-012-0339-3 CrossRef
  Cruden DM, Varnes DJ (1996) Landslide types and processes, in: landslide: investigation and mitigation. Special report 247. Transportation Research Board, Washington, pp 36–75
  Di Maio C, Vassallo R, Vallario M, Pascale S, Sdao F (2010) Structure and kinematics of a landslide in a complex clayey formation of the Italian Southern Apennines. Eng Geol 116:311–322. doi:10.​1016/​j.​enggeo.​2010.​09.​012 CrossRef
  Di Maio C, Vassallo R, Vallario M (2013) Plastic and viscous displacements of a deep and very slow landslide in stiff clay formation. Eng Geol 162:53–66. doi:10.​1016/​j.​enggeo.​2013.​05.​003 CrossRef
  Di Maio C, Scaringi G, Vassallo R (2015) Residual strength and creep behaviour on the slip surface of specimens of a landslide in marine origin clay shales: influence of pore fluid composition. Landslides 12:657–667. doi:10.​1007/​s10346-014-0511-z CrossRef
  Doglioni A, Simeone V (2014) Data-driven modeling of the dynamic response of a large deep karst aquifer. Engineering Procedia, 89(C), 1254–1259; 16th Conference on Water Distribution System Analysis, WDSA 2014—Bari (Italy), July 2014. doi: 10.​1016/​j.​proeng.​2014.​11.​430
  Doglioni A, Mancarella D, Simeone V, Giustolisi O (2010) Inferring groundwater system dynamics from time series data. Hydrol Sci J 55(4):593–608. doi:10.​1080/​0262666100374755​6 CrossRef
  Doglioni A, Fiorillo F, Guadagno FM, Simeone V (2012) Evolutionary polynomial regression to alert rainfall-triggered landslide reactivation. Landslides 9(1):53–62. doi:10.​1007/​s10346-011-0274-8 CrossRef
  Doglioni A, Galeandro A, Simeone V (2014) Evolutionary data-driven modeling of Salento shallow aquifer response to rainfall. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory. In Lollino G, Arattano M, Rinaldi M, Giustolisi O, Marechal JC, Grant GE (eds) Volume 3 River basins, reservoir sedimentation and water resources (IAEG XII Congress, 15–19 Sept, 2014, Torino, Italy). doi: 10.​1007/​978-3-319-09054-2_​58
  Giustolisi O, Savic DA (2009) Advances in data-driven analyses and modelling using EPR-MOGA. J Hydroinform 11(3–4):225–236. doi:10.​2166/​hydro.​2009.​017 CrossRef
  Giustolisi O, Doglioni A, Laucelli D, Savic DA (2004) A proposal for an effective multiobjective non-dominated genetic algorithm: the optimised multi-objective genetic algorithm, OPTIMOGA. Report 2004/07, School of Engineering Computer Science and Mathematics, Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter, UK
  Giustolisi O, Doglioni A, Savic DA, di Pierro F (2008) An evolutionary multi-objective strategy for the effective management of groundwater resources. Water Resour Res 44:W01403. doi:10.​1029/​2006WR005359
  Goldberg DE (1989) Genetic algorithms in search, optimization, and machine learning. Addison Wesley, Boston 432 p
  Leroueil S (2001) Natural slopes and cuts: movement and failure mechanisms. Géotechnique 51(3):197–243CrossRef
  Leroueil S, Locat J, Vaunat J, Picarelli L, Lee H, Faure R (1996) Geotechnical characterization of slope movements. Proc VII Int Symp Landslides Trondheim 1:53–74
  Pareto V (1896) Cours D’Economie Politique. Rouge and Cic, Vol. I and II, Lausanne, Switzerland
  Picarelli L, Di Maio C (2010) Deterioration processes of hard clays and clay shales. In: Weathering as predisposing factor to slope movements. Engineering geology special publications, vol 23. Geological Society, London, pp 15–32. doi:10.​1144/​EGSP23.​3
  Vassallo R, Grimaldi GM, Di Maio C (2015) Pore pressures induced by historical rain series in a deep-seated clayey landslide: 3D modeling. Landslides 12:731–744. doi:10.​1007/​s10346-014-0508-7 CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：R. Vassallo (1)
  A. Doglioni (2)
  G. M. Grimaldi (1)
  C. Di Maio (1)
  V. Simeone (2)
  
  1. University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy
  2. Technical University of Bari, Bari, Italy
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Inclinometer and piezometer measurements have been carried out since 2005 in a slow active earthflow in a clay shale formation of the Italian Southern Apennines. Previous studies outlined the main geometrical and kinematic features of the landslide and the pore pressure response to rainfall. Displacement rates seem to depend on the hydrological conditions as suggested by their seasonal variations. The availability of long time series of data, in some periods recorded in continuum, allows the use of a data mining approach to evaluate the relations among displacement rates in different points of the landslide, and between displacement rates and rainfall. To define such relations, the evolutionary modelling technique EPRMOGA, based on a genetic algorithm, has been used in this paper. The results give a deeper insight into the landslide behaviour on the one hand and, on the other hand, show the reliability of the technique, also in building up management scenarios. In particular, the results show that the landslide displacement rates in different points of the slip surface, although characterized by different values, are linearly dependent and thus have the same time trend, supporting the hypothesis of a constant soil discharge mechanism of movement. Piezometric data in single points cannot be used, in the considered case, to forecast displacements. The obtained relations allow to quantify the displacement rate variations due to contemporary rainfall. The influence of past rainfall is shown to decrease exponentially with temporal distance. Furthermore, the EPRMOGA simulations seem to confirm that there are no other dominant causes, besides rainfall, responsible of displacement rate variations in time.