Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China

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• 作者：Xinchuang Xu (1) (2)
  Quansheng Ge (1)
  Jingyun Zheng (1)
  Erfu Dai (1)
  Xuezhen Zhang (1)
  Shanfeng He (1) (3)
  Guangxu Liu (1)
  
• 关键词：The monsoon region of east China ; Consecutive rainless days ; Risk loss ; Three main crops ; Agricultural drought
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：March 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：66
• 期：2
• 页码：1257-1272
• 全文大小：716KB
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• 作者单位：Xinchuang Xu (1) (2)
  Quansheng Ge (1)
  Jingyun Zheng (1)
  Erfu Dai (1)
  Xuezhen Zhang (1)
  Shanfeng He (1) (3)
  Guangxu Liu (1)
  
  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academic of Science, 100101, Beijing, China
  2. The School of Resources Environment Science and Technology, Hubei University of Science and Technology, 437100, Xianning, China
  3. Emergency Management School, He’nan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, China
  
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Drought, a frequent environmental disaster in the monsoon region of east China, significantly affects the agricultural economy. In recent years, researchers have emphasised drought risk management. This paper presents a preliminary method to analyse the risk of agricultural drought with regard to the loss of three main crops in individual prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. In this study, the agricultural drought risk is assessed by developing the index of consecutive rainless days and establishing loss rate curves based on the historical drought data from 1995 to 2008. The results show that the North China is seriously affected by drought hazard. Northeast China is the most sensitive to drought due to its large sown crop areas and weak irrigation. Approximately 11?% of the cities are in the extreme risk category; this category includes 26?% of the cultivated land area and 11?% of the total crop yields in the region. Twenty-three per cent of the cities, accounting for 28.5?% of the total cultivated land area and 26.4?% of the crop yields of the study area, are in high-risk areas, and 77?% of the cities with high and extreme risk levels are distributed in North and Northeast China. Moreover, 64?% of the cities in the monsoon region of East China are in moderate- and low-risk levels. These cities are primarily located south of the Yangtze River. In conclusion, minimising the risk of agricultural drought must be emphasised in northern China because of the high level of risk.