The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 -a worst case
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- 作者：Oliver Wetter (1) (2)
Christian Pfister (1)
Johannes P. Werner (3)
Eduardo Zorita (4)
Sebastian Wagner (4)
Sonia I. Seneviratne (5)
Jürgen Herget (6)
Uwe Grünewald (7)
Jürg Luterbacher (3)
Maria-Joao Alcoforado (8)
Mariano Barriendos (10) (9)
Ursula Bieber (11)
Rudolf Brázdil (12) (13)
Karl H. Burmeister (14)
Chantal Camenisch (1) (2)
Antonio Contino (15)
Petr Dobrovolny (12) (13)
Rüdiger Glaser (16)
Iso Himmelsbach (16)
Andrea Kiss (17)
Old?ich Kotyza (18)
Thomas Labbé (19)
Danuta Limanówka (20)
Laurent Litzenburger (21)
?yvind Nordl (22)
Kathleen Pribyl (23)
Dag Rets? (24)
Dirk Riemann (16)
Christian Rohr (1) (2)
Werner Siegfried (25)
Johan S?derberg (24)
Jean-Laurent Spring (26) - 刊名：Climatic Change
- 出版年：2014
- 出版时间：August 2014
- 年：2014
- 卷：125
- 期：3-4
- 页码：349-363
- 全文大小：779 KB
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65. Zwierlein C (2011) Der gez?hmte Prometheus. Feuer und Sicherheit zwischen Früher Neuzeit und Moderne Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht. G?ttingen. pp. 433 - 作者单位：Oliver Wetter (1) (2)
Christian Pfister (1)
Johannes P. Werner (3)
Eduardo Zorita (4)
Sebastian Wagner (4)
Sonia I. Seneviratne (5)
Jürgen Herget (6)
Uwe Grünewald (7)
Jürg Luterbacher (3)
Maria-Joao Alcoforado (8)
Mariano Barriendos (10) (9)
Ursula Bieber (11)
Rudolf Brázdil (12) (13)
Karl H. Burmeister (14)
Chantal Camenisch (1) (2)
Antonio Contino (15)
Petr Dobrovolny (12) (13)
Rüdiger Glaser (16)
Iso Himmelsbach (16)
Andrea Kiss (17)
Old?ich Kotyza (18)
Thomas Labbé (19)
Danuta Limanówka (20)
Laurent Litzenburger (21)
?yvind Nordl (22)
Kathleen Pribyl (23)
Dag Rets? (24)
Dirk Riemann (16)
Christian Rohr (1) (2)
Werner Siegfried (25)
Johan S?derberg (24)
Jean-Laurent Spring (26)
1. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
2. Institute of History, Section of Economic, Social and Environmental History (WSU), University of Bern, Erlachstrasse 9a, Bern, 9 3000, Switzerland
3. Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Switzerland
4. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany
5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CHN N11, Universit?tstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
6. Department of Geography, Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University, Meckenheimer Allee 166, D-53115, Bonn, Germany
7. Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Process Engineering, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus -Senftenberg, Konrad-Wachsmann-Allee 6, 03046, Cottbus, Switzerland
8. Centre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Planning, University of Lisbon, Edifício da Fac. de Letras, Alameda da Universidade, 1600-214, Lisboa, Portugal
10. Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Montalegre 6, 08003, Barcelona, Spain
9. Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
11. Department of Slavonic Studies and Interdisciplinary Centre of Medieval Studies, University of Salzburg, Erzabt-Klotz-Strasse 1, 5020, Salzburg, Austria
12. Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlá?ská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
13. Global Change Research Centre AS CR, B?lidla 956/4a, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic
14. Hoyerberg, Am Staeuben 18, Hoyerberg, 88131, Bodolz, Germany
15. Department of Earth and Sea Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 26, 90123, Palermo, Italy
16. Department of Environmental Social Studies and Geography - Physical Geography, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg i.Br., Werthmannstrasse 4, 79102, Freiburg, Germany
17. Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040, Vienna, Austria
18. Regional Museum, Dlouhá 139, 412 01, Litomě?ice, Czech Republic
19. Institute of History, Technische Universit?t (TU) of Darmstadt, Residenzschloss, 64283, Darmstadt, Germany
20. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB), Center for Poland’s Climate Monitoring, Podle?na, 01-673, Warsaw, Poland
21. Lorraine University Center for Historical Research (CRULH), University of Lorraine, Campus Lettres et Sciences Humaines, Place Godefroy de Bouillon, BP 3397, 54015, Nancy Cedex, France
22. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research and Development Department, Division for Model and Climate Analysis, Henrik Mohns plass 1, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, N-0313, Norway
23. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
24. Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
25. Agroscope Research Station ACW, Extension Wine, Schloss 1 Postfach, 8820, W?denswil, Switzerland
26. Station de recherche Agroscope à Pully, 21 av. de Rochettaz CH-1009, Pully, Switzerland - ISSN：1573-1480
文摘
The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.