Predicting Irrigated and Rainfed Rice Yield Under Projected Climate Change Scenarios in the Eastern Region of India

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• 作者：A. V. M. Subba Rao ; Arun K. Shanker ; V. U. M. Rao…
• 关键词：Climate change ; Simulation modeling ; Elevated CO2 ; Sink capacity ; Photosynthesis
• 刊名：Environmental Modeling & Assessment
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：21
• 期：1
• 页码：17-30
• 全文大小：2,686 KB
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• 作者单位：A. V. M. Subba Rao (2)
  Arun K. Shanker (1)
  V. U. M. Rao (2)
  V. Narsimha Rao (2)
  A. K. Singh (3)
  Pragyan Kumari (4)
  C. B. Singh (5)
  Praveen Kumar Verma (6)
  P. Vijaya Kumar (2)
  B. Bapuji Rao (2)
  Rajkumar Dhakar (2)
  M. A. Sarath Chandran (7)
  C. V. Naidu (8)
  J. L. Chaudhary (6)
  Ch. Srinivasa Rao (7)
  B. Venkateshwarlu (9)
  
  2. All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Santoshnagar, Saidabad PO, Hyderabad, 500 059, India
  1. Division of Crop Sciences, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Santoshnagar, Saidabad PO, Hyderabad, 500 059, India
  3. Department of Agrometeorology, N.D. University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Faizabad, 224 229, Uttar Pradesh, India
  4. Department of Agricultural Physics, Birsa Agricultural University, Kanke, Ranchi, 834 006, Jharkhand, India
  5. Department of Agronomy, C.S. Azad University of Agriculture and Technology, Nawabganj, Kanpur, 208 002, Uttar Pradesh, India
  6. Department of Agro Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya (IGKV), Krishak Nagar, Raipur, 492004, Chhattisgarh, India
  7. Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Santoshnagar, Saidabad PO, Hyderabad, 500 059, India
  8. Andhra University, Vishakapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India
  9. Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Krishi Vidyapeeth Parbhani (VNMKV), Parbhani, 431402, Maharashtra, India
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Environment
  Mathematical Modeling and IndustrialMathematics
  Applications of Mathematics
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-2967

文摘

Numerous estimates for the coming decades project changes in precipitation resulting in more frequent droughts and floods, rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> and temperature, extensive runoff leading to leaching of soil nutrients, and decrease in freshwater availability. Among these changes, elevated CO<sub>2sub> can affect crop yields in many ways. It is imperative to understand the consequences of elevated CO<sub>2sub> on the productivity of important agricultural crop species in order to devise adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat impending climate change. In this study, we have modeled rice phenology, growth phase, and yield with the “Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CERES rice model” and arrived at predicted values of yield under different CO<sub>2sub> concentrations at four different locations in Eastern India out of which three locations were irrigated and one location was rainfed. The ECHAM climate scenario, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)3.0 climate scenario, and ensemble models showed different levels of yield increase with a clear reduction in yield under rainfed rice as compared to irrigated rice. A distinct regional and cultivar difference in response of rice yield to elevated CO<sub>2sub> was seen in this study. Results obtained by simulation modeling at different climate change scenarios support the hypothesis that rice plant responses to elevated CO<sub>2sub> are through stimulation of photosynthesis. Realization of higher yields is linked with source sink dynamics and partitioning of assimilates wherein sink capacity plays an important role under elevated CO<sub>2sub> conditions. Keywords Climate change Simulation modeling Elevated CO<sub>2sub> Sink capacity Photosynthesis