Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF–NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany

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• 作者：Kirsten Warrach-Sagi ; Thomas Schwitalla ; Volker Wulfmeyer…
• 关键词：Regional climate model ; Germany ; Precipitation ; Convection ; permitting simulation
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：August 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：41
• 期：3-4
• 页码：755-774
• 全文大小：2780KB
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• 作者单位：Kirsten Warrach-Sagi (1)
  Thomas Schwitalla (1)
  Volker Wulfmeyer (1)
  Hans-Stefan Bauer (1)
  
  1. Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstrasse 30, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with its land surface model NOAH was set up and applied as regional climate model over Europe. It was forced with the latest ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1989 to 2008 and operated with 0.33° and 0.11° resolution. This study focuses on the verification of monthly and seasonal mean precipitation over Germany, where a high quality precipitation dataset of the German Weather Service is available. In particular, the precipitation is studied in the orographic terrain of southwestern Germany and the dry lowlands of northeastern Germany. In both regions precipitation data is very important for end users such as hydrologists and farmers. Both WRF simulations show a systematic positive precipitation bias not apparent in ERA-interim and an overestimation of wet day frequency. The downscaling experiment improved the annual cycle of the precipitation intensity, which is underestimated by ERA-interim. Normalized Taylor diagrams, i.e., those discarding the systematic bias by normalizing the quantities, demonstrate that downscaling with WRF provides a better spatial distribution than the ERA interim precipitation analyses in southwestern Germany and most of the whole of Germany but degrades the results for northeastern Germany. At the applied model resolution of 0.11°, WRF shows typical systematic errors of RCMs in orographic terrain such as the windward–lee effect. A convection permitting case study set up for summer 2007 improved the precipitation simulations with respect to the location of precipitation maxima in the mountainous regions and the spatial correlation of precipitation. This result indicates the high value of regional climate simulations on the convection-permitting scale.