Stochastic analysis of long dry spells in Calabria (Southern Italy)

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• 作者：B. Sirangelo ; T. Caloiero ; R. Coscarelli ; E. Ferrari
• 刊名：Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：127
• 期：3-4
• 页码：711-724
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Climatology; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution;
• 出版者：Springer Vienna
• ISSN：1434-4483
• 卷排序：127

文摘

A deficit in precipitation may impact greatly on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir storage. Among the several approaches available to investigate this phenomenon, one of the most applied is the analysis of dry spells. In this study, a non-homogeneous Poisson model has been applied to a set of high-quality daily rainfall series, recorded in southern Italy (Calabria region) during the period 1981–2010, for the stochastic analysis of dry spells. Firstly, some statistical details of the Poisson models were presented. Then, the proposed model has been applied to the analysis of long dry spells. In particular, a Monte Carlo technique was performed to reproduce the characteristics of the process. As a result, the main characteristics of the long dry spells have shown patterns clearly related to some geographical features of the study area, such as elevation and latitude. The results obtained from the stochastic modelling of the long dry spells proved that the proposed model is useful for the probability evaluation of drought, thus improving environmental planning and management.