Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

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• 作者：Kristin B. Byrd (1)
  Lorraine E. Flint (2)
  Pelayo Alvarez (3)
  Clyde F. Casey (4)
  Benjamin M. Sleeter (1)
  Christopher E. Soulard (1)
  Alan L. Flint (2)
  Terry L. Sohl (5)
  
  1. Western Geographic Science Center ; U.S. Geological Survey ; 345 Middlefield Road ; MS-531 ; Menlo Park ; CA ; 94025 ; USA
  2. California Water Science Center ; U.S. Geological Survey ; Placer Hall ; 6000 J Street ; Sacramento ; CA ; 95819 ; USA
  3. California Rangeland Conservation Coalition/Defenders of Wildlife ; P. O. Box 73470 ; Davis ; CA ; 95617 ; USA
  4. Science and Decisions Center ; U.S. Geological Survey ; 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive ; Reston ; Virginia ; 20192-0002 ; USA
  5. EROS Data Center ; U.S. Geological Survey ; 47914 252nd Street ; Sioux Falls ; SD ; 57198-9801 ; USA
  
• 关键词：Rangeland ; Ecosystem services ; Land use/land cover change scenarios ; Downscaled global climate models ; Water supply ; Soil carbon ; Grassland ; Climate change adaptation
• 刊名：Landscape Ecology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：April 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：30
• 期：4
• 页码：729-750
• 全文大小：3,604 KB
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• 刊物类别：Biomedical and Life Sciences
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences
  Landscape Ecology
  Plant Ecology
  Forestry Management
  Forestry
  Ecology
  Plant Sciences
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1572-9761

文摘

Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives. Methods We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance. Results The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils. Conclusion Results support the need for climate-smart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.