A new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon and its application for assessment of impacts of the possible maximum storm surges in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan

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• 作者：Shinya Shimokawa (1)
  Tomokazu Murakami (1)
  Satoshi Iizuka (1)
  Jun Yoshino (2)
  Takashi Yasuda (3)
  
• 关键词：Typhoon bogussing scheme ; Maximum potential intensity ; Storm surge ; Global warming
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：December 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：74
• 期：3
• 页码：2037-2052
• 全文大小：3,772 KB
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  20. Yoshino J, Murakami T, Kobayashi K, Yasuda T (2008) An estimation method for potential maximum storm surge heights using a new tropical cyclone initialization scheme and a coupled atmosphere鈥搊cean鈥搘ave model. Solut Coast Disasters Conf 2008:256鈥?67
  
• 作者单位：Shinya Shimokawa (1)
  Tomokazu Murakami (1)
  Satoshi Iizuka (1)
  Jun Yoshino (2)
  Takashi Yasuda (3)
  
  1. Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Unit, National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, 305-0006, Japan
  2. Environmental and Renewable Energy Systems Division, Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan
  3. Aichi University of Technology, 50-2 Manori, Nishihasama-cho, Gamagori, 443-0047, Japan
  
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons.