Growth on a finite planet: resources, technology and population in the long run

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• 作者：Pietro F. Peretto ; Simone Valente
• 关键词：Endogenous innovation ; Resource scarcity ; Population growth ; Fertility choices ; E10 ; L16 ; O31 ; O40
• 刊名：Journal of Economic Growth
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：September 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：20
• 期：3
• 页码：305-331
• 全文大小：1,301 KB
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• 作者单位：Pietro F. Peretto (1)
  Simone Valente (2)
  
  1. Department of Economics, Duke University, Room 241, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
  2. School of Economics, University of East Anglia, ARTS 3.50, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
  
• 刊物主题：Economic Growth; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics; International Economics;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1573-7020

文摘

We study the interactions between technological change, resource scarcity and population dynamics in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous fertility. We find a steady state in which population is constant and determined by resource scarcity while income grows exponentially. If labor and resources are substitutes in production, income and fertility dynamics are stable and the steady state is the global attractor of the system. If labor and resources are complements, income and fertility dynamics are unstable and drive the economy towards either demographic explosion or collapse. We calibrate the model numerically to match past US data on fertility and land scarcity, obtaining future scenarios for the current century and quantifying the response of fertility and productivity to exogenous shocks.