Business cycles, technology and exports

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• 作者：Dario Guarascio ; Mario Pianta ; Matteo Lucchese ; Francesco Bogliacino
• 关键词：Business cycles ; Innovation ; Export ; Three stage least squares ; F41 ; F43 ; O31 ; O33 ; C3
• 刊名：Economia Politica
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：August 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：32
• 期：2
• 页码：167-200
• 全文大小：
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• 作者单位：Dario Guarascio (1)
  Mario Pianta (2)
  Matteo Lucchese (3)
  Francesco Bogliacino (4)
  
  1. Sapienza Universit脿 di Roma, Rome, Italy
  2. Universit脿 di Urbino Carlo Bo, Urbino, Italy
  3. Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Rome, Italy
  4. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogot谩, Columbia
  
• 刊物类别：Economic Policy; Political Economy;
• 刊物主题：Economic Policy; Political Economy;
• 出版者：Springer International Publishing
• ISSN：1973-820X

文摘

This article shows鈥攐n both conceptual and empirical grounds鈥攖he importance of business cycles in affecting key relationships between innovation and international performance. While periods of upswing are characterised by a well documented 鈥榲irtuous circle鈥?between innovation inputs, new products and export success, during downswings most of the positive relationships and feedbacks tend to break down. The findings of Guarascio et al. in (University of Urbino DESP WP 1406, 2014) on the long-term relationships between R&D, new products and exports are confirmed and qualified with major novelties. But when the period of analysis is split between periods of upswing and downswing鈥攆ollowing Lucchese and Pianta in (Comparat Econ Stud, 54: 341鈥?59, 2012)鈥攕ignificantly different relationships emerge. These results are obtained through an approach that combines several complementary perspectives. A Schumpeterian view on the diversity of technological change allows to disentangle the specificities and effects of innovation inputs and outputs, and of new products and new processes. A structural change perspective on the role of demand as a driver of innovation and on the importance of open economies allows to link industries鈥?dynamics with international competitiveness. A business cycle perspective crossing the two previous approaches sheds new light on the fragility of key economic relationships and on the long term damage that recessions may cause to the 鈥榲irtuous circle鈥?of innovation and performance. The model we propose links exports, R&D and innovation success in a system of three simultaneous equations allowing for the presence of feedbacks loops among key variables. The empirical test is carried out for the period 1995鈥?010 at the industry level, on 21 manufacturing and 17 service sectors; country coverage includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, representing a very large part of the European economy. Keywords Business cycles Innovation Export Three stage least squares