Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship

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• 作者：Jamal Asfahani ; Ryad Darawcheh
• 关键词：Seismicity ; Statistical seismology ; Transform faults ; Syria ; Arabian plate
• 刊名：Arabian Journal of Geosciences
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：10
• 期：4
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth Sciences, general;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-7538
• 卷排序：10

文摘

An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M_c) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.