Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope approach

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• 作者：Atta-ur-Rahman ; Muhammad Dawood
• 关键词：Climate change ; Temperature trend ; Slope magnitude ; Mann–Kendall trend model ; Sen’s slope estimator
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：48
• 期：3-4
• 页码：783-797
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Geophysics/Geodesy; Climatology; Oceanography;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894
• 卷排序：48

文摘

This article deals with the spatio-statistical analysis of temperature trend using Mann–Kendall trend model (MKTM) and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) in the eastern Hindu Kush, north Pakistan. The climate change has a strong relationship with the trend in temperature and resultant changes in rainfall pattern and river discharge. In the present study, temperature is selected as a meteorological parameter for trend analysis and slope magnitude. In order to achieve objectives of the study, temperature data was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department for all the seven meteorological stations that falls in the eastern Hindu Kush region. The temperature data were analysed and simulated using MKTM, whereas for the determination of temperature trend and slope magnitude SSE method have been applied to exhibit the type of fluctuations. The analysis reveals that a positive (increasing) trend in mean maximum temperature has been detected for Chitral, Dir and Saidu Sharif met stations, whereas, negative (decreasing) trend in mean minimum temperature has been recorded for met station Saidu Sharif and Timergara. The analysis further reveals that the concern variation in temperature trend and slope magnitude is attributed to climate change phenomenon in the region.