Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the southern Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modeling

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：V. G. Soukhovolsky ; V. I. Ponomarev ; G. I. Sokolov…
• 刊名：Biology Bulletin Reviews
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：6
• 期：1
• 页码：57-69
• 全文大小：441 KB
• 参考文献：Anderson, T. W., The Statistical Analysis of Time Series, New York: Wiley, 1971.
  Andreeva, E.M., Ponomarev, V.I., and Shatalin, A.V., Morphological, physiological, and trophic characteristics of the gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera, Lymantriidae) larvae in relation to the hydrothermal conditions and the population density, Entomol. Rev., 2008, vol. 88, no. 7, pp. 755–763.CrossRef
  Asch, M. and van Visser, M.E., Phenology of forest caterpillars and their host trees: the importance of synchrony, Ann. Rev. Entomol., 2007, vol. 52, pp. 37–55.CrossRef
  Baltensweiler, W., Benz, G., Boney, P., and Delucci, V., Dynamics of larch bud moth population, Ann. Rev. Entomol., 1977, vol. 22, pp. 79–100.CrossRef
  Benkevich, V.I., Massovye poyavleniya meparnogo shelkopryada v Evropeiskoi chasti SSSR (Mass Appearance of the Gypsy Moth in European Part of the Soviet Union), Moscow: Nauka, 1984.
  Berryman, A.A., What caused population cycles of forest Lepidoptera? Trends Ecol. Evol., 1995, vol. 11, pp. 28–32.CrossRef
  Biging, G.S., Giese, R.L., and Nordheim, E.V., Gypsy moth population simulations for Wisconsin, For. Sci., 1980, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 710–724.
  Bigsby, K., Tobin, P., and Sills, E., Anthropogenic drivers of gypsy moth spread, Biol. Invasions, 2011, vol. 13, no. 9, pp. 2077–2090.CrossRef
  Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G., Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: HoldenDay, 1970.
  Campball, R.W., Evidence for high fecundity among certain North American gypsy moth populations, Environ. Entomol., 1981, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 663–667.CrossRef
  Campball, R.W. and Sloan, R.J., Forest stand responses to defoliation by gypsy moth, For. Sci. Monogr., 1977, vol. 19, pp. 1–34.
  Dwyer, G. and Elkinton, J.S., Using simple models to predict virus epizootics in gypsy moth populations, J. Anim. Ecol., 1993, vol. 62, pp. 1–11.CrossRef
  Edel’man, N.M., Influence of food regime on development of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and poplar leaf beetle (Melasoma populi L., M. tremulae L.), Entomol. Obozr., 1953, vol. 33, pp. 36–46.
  Elkinton, J.S., Population dynamics of gypsy moth in North America, Ann. Rev. Entomol., 1990, vol. 35, pp. 517–596.CrossRef
  Forrester, J.W., World Dynamics, Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen, 1971.
  Fraval, A. and El Yousfi, M., Dispersion active et passive de Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lep., Lymantriidae), casde la suberaie marocaine atlantique, J. Appl. Entomol., 1989, vol. 108, no. 4, pp. 335–346.CrossRef
  Gninenko, Yu.I., Geographical forms of the gypsy moth in Northern Asia, Zashch. Karantin Rast., 1998, no. 6, pp. 35–36.
  Gninenko, Yu.I., Sokolov, G.I., and Ponomarev, V.I., Analysis of dynamics of population characteristics of the gypsy moth based on the long-term studies on the test sites, in Bolezni i vrediteli v lesakh Rossii: vek XXI (Diseases and Pests of Russian Forests in 21st Century), Krasnoyarsk: Inst. LEsa, Sib. Otd., Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2011, pp. 143–146.
  Gray, D.R., Logan, J.A., Ravlin, F.W., and Carlson, J.A., Toward a model of gypsy moth egg phenology: using respiration rates of individual eggs to determine temperature time requirements of pre-diapause development, Environ. Entomol., 1991, vol. 20, pp. 1645–1652.CrossRef
  Isaev, A.S., Khlebopros, R.G., Nedorezov, L.V., Kondakov, Yu.P., Kiselev, V.V., and Soukhovolsky, V.G., Populyatsionnaya dinamika lesnykh nasekomykh (Population Dynamics of Forest Pests), Moscow: Nauka, 2001.
  Isaev, A.S., Ovchinnikova, T.M., Pal’nikova, E.N., Soukhovolsky, V.G., Tarasova, O.V., and Khlebopros, R.G., Dynamics of population number and stability of the forest pests at the low density, Lesovedenie, 2014, no. 4, pp. 3–11.
  Ivanov, V.G., Database on Wolf numbers, 2013. http://​www.​gao.​spb.​ru/​personal/​ivanov/​wolfbase_​r.​html
  Jenkins, G.M., and Watts, D.G., Spectral Analysis and Its Applications, San Francisco, CA: HoldenDay, 1968.
  Keena, M.A., Comparison of the hatch of Limantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) eggs from Russia and the United States after exposure to different temperatures and duration of low temperature, Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am., 1996, vol. 89, pp. 564–572.CrossRef
  Kendall, M.G. and Stuart, A., The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 3: Design and Analysis, and Time-Series, London: C. Griffin, 1973.
  Khalifman, A.A., Statistica 6. Statisticheskii analiz dannykh (Statistica 6: Statistical Data Analysis), Moscow: Binom. Laboratoriya Znanii, 2007.
  Khanislamov, M.G., Girfanova, L.N., Yafaeva, Z.Sh., and Stepanova, R.K., Conditions of formation of reservations and increase of population of the gypsy moth in Bashkortostan, in Issledovanie ochagov vreditelei lesa v Bashkirii (Analysis of Nidi of Forest Pests in Bashkortostan), Ufa: Bashkir. Fil., Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1962, pp. 32–66.
  Kireeva, I.M., Ekologiya i fiziologiya neparnogo shelkopryada (Ecology and Physiology of the Gypsy Moth), Kiev: Naukova Dumka, 1983.
  Kolesnikov, B.P., Forests of Chelyabinsk oblast, in Lesa SSSR (Forests of the Soviet Union), Moscow: Nauka, 1969, vol. 4, pp. 125–156.
  Kondakov, Yu.P., The gypsy moth (Ocneria dispar L.) in forests of Krasnoyarsk krai, in Zashchita lesov Sibiri ot nasekomykh-vreditelei (Protection of Siberian Forests against Pests), Moscow: Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1963, pp. 30–77.
  Liebhold, A.M., Are North American populations of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) bimodal? Environ. Entomol., 1992, vol. 21, pp. 221–229.CrossRef
  Liebhold, A., Elkinton, J., Williams, D., and Muzika, R.-M., What causes outbreaks of the gypsy moth in North America? Population Ecol., 2000, vol. 42, pp. 257–266.CrossRef
  Liebhold, A.M., Simons, E.E., Sior, A., and Unger, J.D., Forecasting defoliation caused by the gypsy moth from field measurements, Environ. Entomol., 1993, vol. 22, pp. 26–32.CrossRef
  Lyamtsev, N.I., Isaev, A.S., and Zukert, N.V., Influence of climate and weather on population dynamics of the gypsy moth in European Russia, Lesovedenie, 2000, no. 1, pp. 62–67.
  Mason, C.J. and McManus, M.L., Population dynamics, in The Gypsy Moth: Research Toward Integrated Pest Man-agement, USDA For. Serv. Tech. Bull., Washington, 1984, pp. 65–216.
  Meshkova, V.L., Sezonnoe razvitie khvoelistogryzushchikh nasekomykh (Seasonal Development of Needle-LeafEating Pests), Kharkov: Planeta-print, 2009.
  Montgomery, M.E. and Wallner, W.E., The gypsy moth: a westward migrant, in Dynamics of Forest Insect Populations: Patterns, Causes, Implications, Berryman, A.A., Ed., New York: Plenum, 1988, pp. 253–375.
  Moran, P.A.P., Some remarks on animal population dynamics, Biometrica, 1950, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 250–258.CrossRef
  Moran, P.A.P., The statistical analysis of the Canadian lynx cycle. II. Synchronization and meteorology, Austral. J. Zool., 1953, vol. 1, pp. 291–298.CrossRef
  Morse, J.G. and Simmons, G.A., Simulation model of gypsy moth introduced into Michigan forests, Environ. Entomol., 1979, vol. 8, pp. 293–299.CrossRef
  Myers, J.H., Synchrony in outbreaks of forest Lepidoptera: a possible example of the Moran effect, Ecology, 1998, vol. 79, pp. 1111–1117.CrossRef
  Myers, J.H., Boettner, G., and Elkinton, J., Maternal effects in gypsy moth: only sex ratio varies with population density, Ecology, 1998, vol. 79, pp. 305–314.CrossRef
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2013. http://​www.​ngdc.​noaa.​gov/​stp/​space-weather/​solar-data/​solar-indices/​sunspot-numbers/​documentation/​readme_​sunspot-numbers.​pdf
  Pal’nikova, E.N., Soukhovolsky, V.G., and Tarasova, O.V., Spatio-temporal coherence of population dynamics of the forest phyllophagous pests, Eurasian Entomol. J., 2014, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 228–236.
  Pal’nikova, E.N., Sviderskaya, I.V., and Soukhovolsky, V.G., Sosnovaya pyadenitsa v lesakh Sibiri (The Pine Looper Bupalus piniarius in Siberian Forests), Novosibirsk: Nauka, 2002.
  Pollard, J.H., A Handbook of Numerical and Statistical Techniques, New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1977.CrossRef
  Ponomarev, V.I., Il’inykh, A.V., Gninenko, Yu.I., Sokolov, G.I., and Andreeva, E.M., Neparnyi shelkopryad v Zaural’e i Zapadnoi Sibiri (The Gypsy Moth in Trans-Ural and Western Siberia), Yekaterinburg: UrO, Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2012.
  Raspopov, P.M. and Rafes, P.M., Population dynamics of herbivorous arthropods as the reason and result of environmental changes, in Biologicheskie metody otsenki prirodnoi sredy (Biological Methods Applied in Environmental Analysis), Moscow: Nauka, 1978, pp. 36–57.
  Régnière, J., Nealis, V., and Porter, K., Climate suitability and management of the gypsy moth invasion into Canada, Biol. Invasions, 2009, vol. 11, pp. 135–148.CrossRef
  Reineke, A., Karlovsky, P., and Zebitz, C.P.W., Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis of different geographic populations of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), Bull. Entomol. Res., 1999, vol. 89, pp. 79–88.CrossRef
  Rossiter, M.C., Environmentally-based maternal effects: a hidden force in insect population dynamics? Oecologia, 1991, vol. 87, pp. 288–294.CrossRef
  Sharov, A.A. and Colbert, J.J., A model for testing hypotheses of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L., population dynamics, Ecol. Model., 1996, vol. 84, pp. 31–51.CrossRef
  Sharov, A.A., Liebhold, M.A., and Roberts, E.A., Spread of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in the Central Appalachians: comparison of population boundaries obtained from male moth capture, egg mass counts, and defoliation records, Environ. Entomol., 1996, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 783–792.CrossRef
  Sheehan, K.A., Status of the gypsy moth life system model, in Proceedings. National Gypsy Moth Review, Miller, A.R., Ed., Charleston, WV: West Virginia Agric. Dep., 1988, pp. 166–171.
  Sheehan, K.A., Models for the population dynamics of Lymantria dispar, in Proceedings, Lymantriidae. A Comparison of Features of New and Old World Tussock Moths, Waliner, W.E. and McManus, K.A., Eds., USDA For. Serv., NE For. Exp. Sia. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-123, 1989, pp. 533–547.
  Sokolov, G.I., Organization of forest-pathological control for population dynamics and status of needleand leafeating pests in Chelyabinsk oblast, in Bespozvonochnye zhivotnye Yuzhnogo Zaural’ya i sopredel’nykh territorii (Invertebrates of Southern Trans-Ural and Adjacent Territories), Kurgan: Kurgan. Gos. Univ., 1998, pp. 288–291.
  Sokolov, G.I. and Gninenko, Yu.I., The results of half-century observation of population dynamic of the gypsy moth in forests of Chelyabinsk oblast, in Biologicheskaya zashchita lesa i lesopatologicheskii monitoring v Rossii (Biological Protection of Forest and ForestPathological Monitoring in Russia), Pushkino: Vseross. Nauchno-Issled. Inst. Lesovod. Mekhaniz. Lesn. Khoz., 2002, pp. 137–146.
  Soukhovolsky, V.G., Iskhakov, T.R., and Tarasova, O.V., Optimizatsionnye modeli mezhpopulyatsionnykh vzaimodeistvii (Optimization Models of Intrapopulation Interactions), Novosibirsk: Nauka, 2008.
  Vyaznikov, A.N. and Sokolov, G.I., Istoriya lesnogo khozyaistva i lesovody Chelyabinskoi oblasti (History of Forestry and Forestry Specialists of Chelyabinsk Oblast), Chelyabinsk: Kamennyi Poyas, 2006, in 2 vols.
  Waggoner, P.E., The hatching of gypsy moth eggs, a phenological model, Agric. For. Meteorol., 1984, vol. 33, pp. 53–65.CrossRef
  Wilder, J.W., A predictive model for gypsy moth population dynamics with model validation, Ecol. Model., 1999, vol. 116, pp. 165–181.CrossRef
  Wilder, J.W., Voorhis, N., Colbert, J.J., and Sharov, A., A three variable differential equation model for gypsy moth population dynamics, Ecol. Model., 1994, vol. 72, pp. 229–250.CrossRef
  Williams, D.W., Fuester, R.W., Metterhouse, W.W., Balaam, R.J., Bullock, R.H., Chianese, R.I., and Reardon, R.C., Density, size and mortality of egg masses in New Jersey of the gypsy moth (Lepidoptcra: Lymantriidae), Environ. Entomol., 1990, vol. 19, pp. 943–948.CrossRef
  Williams, D.W. and Liebhold, A.M., Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England, Environ. Entomol., 1995, vol. 24, pp. 987–995.CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：V. G. Soukhovolsky (1)
  V. I. Ponomarev (2)
  G. I. Sokolov (3)
  O. V. Tarasova (4)
  P. A. Krasnoperova (4)
  
  1. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russia
  2. Botanic Garden, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Vos’mogo Marta 202a, Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russia
  3. Chelyabinsk State University, ul. Brat’ev Kashirinykh 129, Chelyabinsk, 454001, Russia
  4. Siberian Federal University, pr. Svobodnyi 79, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russia
  
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences, general; Cell Biology; Biochemistry, general; Zoology; Ecology;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：2079-0872

文摘

The population dynamics of gypsy moths from different habitats of the southern Urals was analyzed. Patterns of cyclic changes in the population density were examined. The conjugation of the time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from different habitats at the territory of the southern Urals was assessed. Relationships between the population density and weather conditions were studied. Based on the results, a statistical model of population dynamics in gypsy moth from the southern Urals was developed. The effects of regulatory and modifying factors on the population dynamics were assessed. Original Russian Text © V.G. Soukhovolsky, V.I. Ponomarev, G.I. Sokolov, O.V. Tarasova, P.A. Krasnoperova, 2015, published in Zhurnal Obshchei Biologii, 2015, Vol. 76, No. 3, pp. 179–194.