A preliminary study on the intensity of cold wave storm surges of Laizhou Bay

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• 作者：Xue Li ; Sheng Dong
• 关键词：Laizhou Bay ; cold wave grade ; Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model ; cold wave storm surge intensity
• 刊名：Journal of Ocean University of China
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：15
• 期：6
• 页码：987-995
• 全文大小：1,016 KB
• 刊物主题：Oceanography; Meteorology;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1993-5021
• 卷排序：15

文摘

Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold wave storm surge, the hindcast of marine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge–wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ‘cold wave grade’ in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.