A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

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• 作者：Xuecao Li ; Le Yu ; Terry Sohl ; Nicholas Clinton ; Wenyu Li ; Zhiliang Zhu…
• 关键词：LULC modeling ; Spatial downscaling ; RCP scenarios ; Urban expansion
• 刊名：Chinese Science Bulletin
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：November 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：61
• 期：21
• 页码：1651-1661
• 全文大小：2,901 KB
• 刊物主题：Science, general; Life Sciences, general; Physics, general; Chemistry/Food Science, general; Earth Sciences, general; Engineering, general;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1861-9541
• 卷排序：61

文摘

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover (LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30 m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1 km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.