Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe

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• 作者：Salvador Barrios ; J. Nicolas Iba?ez
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：October 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：132
• 期：4
• 页码：645-660
• 全文大小：1,278 KB
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• 作者单位：Salvador Barrios (1)
  J. Nicolas Iba?ez (1)
  
  1. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Meteorology and Climatology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1480

文摘

This study analyses the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in the European Union (EU) and provides long-term (2100) projections accounting for climate adaptation in terms of holiday duration and frequency. Our analysis is based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining accommodation and travel cost estimations. Our results suggest that climatic change is likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for tourism activities. In certain regions, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean regions, climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to ?.45 % of GDP per year. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European regions would gain from altered climatic conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32 % of GDP on an annual basis. Our results also suggest that the change in holiday duration would be more beneficial than the change in holiday frequency in view of mitigating the cost of climate change. These two time dimensions of adaptation are likely to be conditioned by broader societal and institutional factors, however.