Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

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• 作者：Andreas W. Schäfer
• 关键词：Passenger travel ; Time series model ; Mode choice ; Travel time budget ; Peak car ; Scenario
• 刊名：Transportation
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：44
• 期：2
• 页码：293-310
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Business and Economics
• 刊物主题：Regional/Spatial Science; Economic Geography; Engineering Economics, Organization, Logistics, Marketing; Innovation/Technology Management;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1572-9435
• 卷排序：44

文摘

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.