Scenario-based risk framework selection and assessment model development for natural disasters: a case study of typhoon storm surges

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• 作者：Mengya Li ; Jun Wang ; Xiaojing Sun
• 关键词：Risk framework ; Risk assessment model ; Scenario ; based ; Typhoon storm surges
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：80
• 期：3
• 页码：2037-2054
• 全文大小：4,174 KB
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• 作者单位：Mengya Li (1) (2)
  Jun Wang (1) (2)
  Xiaojing Sun (3)
  
  1. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
  2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
  3. Department of Chemistry, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Many studies have revealed the importance of risk assessment of natural disasters for public safety management, emergency responses and insurance purchases. This paper focuses on three aspects of a risk assessment process: (1) comparing the existing risk frameworks and assessment methods, (2) conceptualizing a scenario-based risk analysis approach and (3) specifying a quantitative assessment model. After a close examination of relevant research, we selected the triad of Hazard, Vulnerability and Adaptation Capability as the risk framework for the present study. We also prescribed several scenarios based on the spatiotemporal dynamic environment leading to given disasters. The assessment model is tested with six scenarios of typhoon storm surges striking Yuhuan County in Zhejiang Province, China. Three findings are highlighted in this paper. First, scenario-based simulation has become a dominant approach in risk analysis under the circumstances where disasters of high intensity, complexity and variability tend to occur frequently. This approach allows identification of acceptable risk with a certain probability. Second, the assessment model can reveal the collective enhancing effect of Hazard and Vulnerability and the mitigation effect of Adaptation Capability to the comprehensive risk. Lastly, the empirical study of Yuhuan indicates that R = 0.90 × H × V − 0.10 × C is the most feasible model for assessing the risk of typhoon storm surges. In general, the proposed methodology may be adapted for risk analysis of diverse disaster scenarios. Keywords Risk framework Risk assessment model Scenario-based Typhoon storm surges