Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area

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• 作者：Sayaka Hoshino ; Miguel Esteban ; Takahito Mikami ; Hiroshi Takagi…
• 关键词：Storm surge ; Sustainability of coastal defences ; Sea level rise ; Typhoons
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：80
• 期：1
• 页码：539-565
• 全文大小：3,862 KB
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• 作者单位：Sayaka Hoshino (1)
  Miguel Esteban (2)
  Takahito Mikami (1)
  Hiroshi Takagi (3)
  Tomoya Shibayama (1)
  
  1. Waseda University, 3-4-1 Ookubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan
  2. The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba, Japan
  3. Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152-8550, Japan
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Sea level rise and an increase in typhoon intensity are two of the expected consequences from future climate change. In the present work, a methodology to change the intensity of tropical cyclones in Japan was developed, which can be used to assess the inundation risk to different areas of the country. As a result, the probability of a storm with an equivalent return period in the year 2100 to that of the worst storm in the 20th century overcoming sea defences around Tokyo Bay could be calculated. The risk of higher storm surges, coupled with different sea-level-rise scenarios, highlights how the dykes around Tokyo or Kawasaki could fail unless adaptation measures against climate change are attempted. The cost of adapting to both of these effects by building higher coastal dykes and raising port areas outside them was quantified. Finally, an estimation of the cost of allowing the areas behind the defences to be flooded was also made, clearly showing that the cost of adaptation measures is clearly lower than the cost of inaction. Keywords Storm surge Sustainability of coastal defences Sea level rise Typhoons