A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

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• 作者：Cheng Wang
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：July 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：82
• 期：3
• 页码：1727-1741
• 全文大小：609 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840
• 卷排序：82

文摘

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generated by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.KeywordsFlood frequency analysisGoodness-of-fitJoint probabilityMonte Carlo simulationConfluence point