Development of a synthetically generated earthquake catalogue towards assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran
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- 作者：Mohammad R. Zolfaghari (1)
1. Civil Engineering Department ; K. N. Toosi University of Technology ; Tehran ; Iran - 关键词：Earthquake catalogue simulation ; Monet Carlo simulation ; Tehran ; Iran ; Alborz
- 刊名：Natural Hazards
- 出版年：2015
- 出版时间：March 2015
- 年：2015
- 卷：76
- 期：1
- 页码：497-514
- 全文大小：15,037 KB
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- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Hydrogeology
Geophysics and Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering
Civil Engineering
Environmental Management - 出版者：Springer Netherlands
- ISSN：1573-0840
文摘
This paper presents the methodology to develop a synthetically simulated earthquake catalogue for northern Iran. The study area covers the northern boundary of Central Iran Plate, which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. A set of areal seismic sources as well as major active faults and their recurrence relationships is modelled to represent the temporal and spatial distribution of potential earthquakes in this region. Probabilistic sampling of events from various spatial and temporal distribution functions, forming sources of uncertainties, is used to generate synthetic events. Areal seismic sources oriented more towards representation of general and background seismicity, derived from statistical and spatial analyses on historical earthquakes. Recurrence relationships as well as potential maximum magnitudes for seismic sources are estimated from records of historical earthquakes and where available from measured and calculated slip rates from recent GPS surveys in this region. The synthetically generated earthquake catalogue provides a realization of potential earthquakes, each characterized with a defined magnitude, location, focal depth, faulting orientation and recurrence frequency. The catalogue is used for assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard, and the results are presented for a test point in the city of Tehran.