A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain
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- 作者：Fermín J. Alcasena ; Michele Salis…
- 关键词：Wildfire risk ; Wildfire simulation ; Highly valued resources and assets ; Mediterranean areas ; Forest–rural–urban intermix
- 刊名：European Journal of Forest Research
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：January 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：135
- 期：1
- 页码：87-107
- 全文大小：11,748 KB
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Michele Salis (2) (3)
Cristina Vega-García (1)
1. Agriculture and Forest Engineering Department (EAGROF), University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain
2. IAFES Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy
3. Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy - 刊物主题：Forestry; Plant Sciences; Plant Ecology;
- 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- ISSN：1612-4677
文摘
Wildfires are a growing threat to socioeconomic and natural resources in the wildland–rural–urban intermix in central Navarra (Spain), where recent fast-spreading and spotting short fire events have overwhelmed suppression capabilities. A fire simulation modeling approach based on the minimum travel time algorithm was used to analyze the wildfire exposure of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) in a 28,000 ha area. We replicated 30,000 fires at fine resolution (20 m), based on wildfire season and recent fire weather and moisture conditions, historical ignition patterns and spatially explicit canopy fuels derived from low-density airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Detailed maps of simulated fire likelihood, fire intensity and fire size were used to assess spatial patterns of HVRA exposure to fire and to analyze large fire initiation and spread through source-sink ratio and fire potential index. Crown fire activity was estimated and used to identify potential spotting-emission hazardous stands. The results revealed considerable variation in fire risk causative factors among and within HVRAs. Exposure levels across HVRAs were mainly related to the combined effects of anthropic ignition locations, fuels, topography and weather conditions. We discuss the potential of fire management strategies such as prioritizing mitigation treatment and fire ignition prevention monitoring, informed by fine-scale geospatial quantitative risk assessment outcomes. Keywords Wildfire risk Wildfire simulation Highly valued resources and assets Mediterranean areas Forest–rural–urban intermix