On impact of transport conditions on variability of the seasonal pollen index
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- 作者：M. Sofiev
- 关键词：Seasonal pollen index ; Pollen load ; Atmospheric transport ; Pollen inter ; annual variability ; Pollen dispersion modelling
- 刊名：Aerobiologia
- 出版年：2017
- 出版时间：March 2017
- 年：2017
- 卷：33
- 期：1
- 页码：167-179
- 全文大小：6583KB
- 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Environmental Health; Plant Pathology; Allergology; Pneumology/Respiratory System; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology;
- 出版者：Springer Netherlands
- ISSN：1573-3025
- 卷排序：33
文摘
This discussion paper reveals the contribution of pollen transport conditions to the inter-annual variability of the seasonal pollen index (SPI). This contribution is quantified as a sensitivity of the pollen model predictions to meteorological variability and is shown to be a noticeable addition to the SPI variability caused by plant reproduction cycles. A specially designed SILAM model re-analysis of pollen seasons 1980–2014 was performed, resulting in the 35 years of the SPI predictions over Europe, which was used to compute the SPI inter-annual variability. The current paper presents the results for birch and grass. Throughout the re-analysis, the source term formulations and habitation maps were kept constant, which allowed attributing the obtained variability exclusively to the pollen release and transport conditions during the flowering seasons. It is shown that the effect is substantial: it amounts to 10–20% (grass) and 20–40% (birch) of the observed SPI year-to-year changes reported in the literature. The phenomenon has well-pronounced spatial- and species-specific patterns. The findings were compared with observation-based statistical models for the SPI prediction, showing that such models highlight the same processes as the analysis with the SILAM model.