Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

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• 作者：V. A. Vetrov ; O. K. Borisova ; A. A. Velichko
• 刊名：Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：41
• 期：5
• 页码：312-325
• 全文大小：799 KB
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1934-8096
• 卷排序：41

文摘

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.KeywordsLong-term projectionregional climatetemperatureprecipitationanthropogenic changesnatural trends