A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina)

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• 作者：Magali Troin ; Mathieu Vrac ; Myriam Khodri ; Daniel Caya…
• 关键词：LMDz ; Statistical downscaling ; Hydrological modeling ; Lake level variability ; Southeastern South America
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：5-6
• 页码：1783-1798
• 全文大小：1,492 KB
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• 作者单位：Magali Troin (1) (2)
  Mathieu Vrac (3)
  Myriam Khodri (4)
  Daniel Caya (2)
  Christine Vallet-Coulomb (1)
  Eduardo Piovano (5)
  Florence Sylvestre (1)
  
  1. CNRS, IRD, CEREGE UM34, Aix-Marseille Université, 13545, Aix-en-Provence, France
  2. Department of Construction Engineering, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, 1100 Notre-Dame Street West, Montreal, QC, H3C 1K3, Canada
  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL) CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Centre d’étude de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 701, 91191, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
  4. LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD/CNRS/MNHN/UPMC, Sorbonne Université, Tour 45-55, 4 place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 5, France
  5. CICTERRA-CIGeS, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 1611, X5016GCA, Córdoba, Argentina
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

During the 1970s, Laguna Mar Chiquita (Argentina) experienced a dramatic hydroclimatic anomaly, with a substantial rise in its level. Precipitations are the dominant driving factor in lake level fluctuations. The present study investigates the potential role of remote forcing through global sea surface temperature (SST) fields in modulating recent hydroclimatic variability in Southeastern South America and especially over the Laguna Mar Chiquita region. Daily precipitation and temperature are extracted from a multi-member LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble of simulations forced by HadISST1 observed time-varying global SST and sea-ice boundary conditions from 1950 to 2005. The various members of the ensemble are only different in their atmospheric initial conditions. Statistical downscaling (SD) is used to adjust precipitation and temperature from LMDz ensemble mean at the station scale over the basin. A coupled basin-lake hydrological model (cpHM) is then using the LMDz-downscaled (LMDz-SD) climate variables as input to simulate the lake behavior. The results indicate that the long-term lake level trend is fairly well depicted by the LMDz-SD-cpHM simulations. The 1970s level rise and high-level conditions are generally well captured in timing and in magnitude when SST-forced AGCM-SD variables are used to drive the cpHM. As the LMDz simulations are forced solely with the observed sea surface conditions, the global SST seems to have an influence on the lake level variations of Laguna Mar Chiquita. As well, this study shows that the AGCM-SD-cpHM model chain is a useful approach for evaluating long-term lake level fluctuations in response to the projected climate changes.