The streamflow trend in Tangwang River basin in northeast China and its difference response to climate and land use change in sub-basins

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Wenbin Liu (1) (5)
  Tijiu Cai (2)
  Guobin Fu (3)
  Aijing Zhang (4)
  Changming Liu (1)
  Hongzhou Yu (2)
  
• 关键词：Hydro ; climatic trend ; Kendall’s test ; Land use change ; SWAT ; Tangwang River basin ; Northeast China
• 刊名：Environmental Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：May 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：69
• 期：1
• 页码：51-62
• 全文大小：789KB
• 参考文献：1. Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part 1: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):1-7 CrossRef
  2. Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438:303-09 CrossRef
  3. Bekele EG, Knapp HV (2010) Watershed modeling to assessing impacts of potential climate change on water supply availability. Water Resour Manag 24:3299-320 CrossRef
  4. Brabets TP, Walvoord MA (2009) Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J Hydrol 371:108-19 CrossRef
  5. Burn DH, Elnur MAH (2002) Detection of hydrological trends and variability. J Hydrol 255:107-22 CrossRef
  6. Chen JJ, Zhang SW (2005) Characteristics and spatial patterns of land use change during 1986-000 Based on RS&GIS in Heilongjiang province, China. Resour Sci 27:83-8 (in Chinese with English Abstract)
  7. Chen XQ, Zong YQ, Zhang EF, Xu JG, Li SJ (2001) Human impacts on the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China, with special reference to the impacts on the dry season water discharges into the sea. Geomorphology 41:111-23 CrossRef
  8. Fan J, Tian F, Yang YH, Han SM, Qiu GY (2010) Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China. Water Sci Technol 62(4):783-91 CrossRef
  9. Fu GB, Chen SL, Liu CM, Shepard D (2004) Hydro-climatic trends of the yellow river basin for the last 50?years. Clim Change 65:149-78 CrossRef
  10. Fu GB, Charles SP, Viney NR, Chen SL, Wu JQ (2007) Impacts of climate variability on stream-flow in the Yellow River. Hydrol Process 21:3431-439 CrossRef
  11. Fu GB, Charles SP, Yu JJ, Liu CM (2009) Decadal climatic variability, trends and future scenarios for the North China Plain. J Climate 22:2111-123 CrossRef
  12. Fu GB, Barber ME, Chen SL (2010) Hydro-climatic variability and trends in Washington State for the last 50?years. Hydrol Process 24:866-78 CrossRef
  13. Gan TY (1998) Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian prairies. Water Resour Res 34:3009-015 CrossRef
  14. Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18:107-21 CrossRef
  15. Hurkmans RTWL, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R, Moors EJ, Troch RP, Verburg PH (2009) Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin. Water Resour Res 45:W06405 CrossRef
  16. IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 140-65
  17. Karl TR, Jones PD, Knight RW, Kukla G, Plummer N, Razuvayev V, Gallo KP, Kindseay J et al (1993) A new perspective on recent global warming: asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. B Am Meteorol Soc 74:1007-023 CrossRef
  18. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London
  19. Li Z, Liu WZ, Zhang XC, Zheng FL (2009) Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. J Hydrol 377:35-2 CrossRef
  20. Lin Y, Wei XH (2008) The impact of large-scale forest harvesting on hydrology in the willow watershed of central British Columbia. J Hydrol 359:141-49 CrossRef
  21. Lin HM, Xu ZC, Li GS (2002) Water resources and aquatic environment analysis in Tangwang river basin. Heilongjiang Sci Technol Water Conservancy 4:54-6 (in Chinese with English Abstract)
  22. Liu Z, Liu CM (2006) The analysis about water resource utilization, ecological and environmental problems in Northeast China. J Nat Resour 21:700-08 (in Chinese with English Abstract)
  23. Liu JS, Hayakawa N, Lu MJ, Dong SH, Yuan JY (2003) Hydrological and geocryological response of winter streamflow to climate warming in Northeast China. Cold Reg Sci Technol 37:15-4 CrossRef
  24. Liu WB, Cai TJ, Ju CY, Fu GB, Yao YF, Cui XQ (2011) Assessing vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climatic variability in Heilongjiang province, northeast China. Environ Earth Sci 64:2013-024 CrossRef
  25. Ma ZM, Kang SZ, Zhang L, Tong L, Su XL (2008) Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol 352:239-49 CrossRef
  26. Ma X, Xu JC, Luo Y, Aggarwal SP, Li JT (2009) Response of hydrological processes to land-cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed, south-west China. Hydrol Process 23:1179-191 CrossRef
  27. Ma X, Xu JC, van Noordwijk M (2010) Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate. Hydrol Process 24:1379-390 CrossRef
  28. Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. T ASABE 50(3):885-00
  29. Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2005) Soil and water assessment tool: theoretical documentation, version 2005. http://swat.tamu.edu/media/1292/swat2005theory.pdf
  30. Nolin AW, Daly C (2006) Mapping “at risk-snow in the Pacific Northwest. J Hydrometeorol 7:1164-171 CrossRef
  31. Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen ZH, Peng SS, Li JS, Zhou LP, Liu HY, Ma YC, Ding YH, Friedlingstein P, Liu CZ, Tan K, Yu YQ, Zhang TY, Fang JY (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43-1 CrossRef
  32. Qin NX, Chen X, Fu GB, Zhai JQ, Xue XW (2010) Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960-007. Hydrol Process 24:3733-744 CrossRef
  33. Rodriguez DA, Tomasella J, Linhares C (2010) Is the forest conversion to pasture affecting the hydrological response of Amazonian catchment? Signals in the Ji-Paraná Basin. Hydrol Process 24:1254-269
  34. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379-389 CrossRef
  35. Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2005) Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America. J Climate 18:1136-155 CrossRef
  36. Sun YL, Zhao MQ, Chen YJ (2008) Optimized configuration of water resources in Tangwang river basin. Heilongjiang Sci Technol Water Conserv 36:138 (in Chinese with English abstract)
  37. Wei XH, Liu SR, Zhou GY, Wang CK (2003) Hydrological processes in major types of Chinese forest. Hydrol Process 19:63-5 CrossRef
  38. Xu ZX, Li JY, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H (2007) Long-term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Ni?o-southern oscillation. Hydrol Process 21:61-1 CrossRef
  39. Xu KH, Milliman JD, Xu H (2010) Temporal trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese River since 1951. Global Planet Change 73:219-32 CrossRef
  40. Yao YF, Cai TJ, Wei XH, Zhang MF, Ju CY (2011) Effect of forest recovery on summer streamflow in small forested watersheds, Northeastern China. Hydrol Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.8204
  41. Yue S, Wang CY (2002) The influence of serial correlation on the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median. Adv Water Resour 25:325-33 CrossRef
  42. Zhai JQ, Su BD, Krysanova V, Vetter T, Gao C, Jiang T (2010) Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. J Climate 23:649-63 CrossRef
  43. Zhang SR, Lu XX (2009) Hydrological responses to precipitation variation and diverse human activities in a mountainous tributary of the lower Xijiang, China. Catena 77:130-42 CrossRef
  44. Zhang Q, Xu C, Becker S, Jiang T (2006) Sediment and runoff discharge in the Yangtze River basin during the past 50?years. J Hydrol 331:511-23 CrossRef
  45. Zhang XP, Zhang L, McVicar TR, Van Niel TG, Li LT, Li R, Yang QK, Wei L (2008) Modelling the impact of afforestation on average annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrol Process 22:1996-004 CrossRef
  46. Zhu DG, Cai TJ, Yao YF, Ju CY (2005) Effects of forest harvesting on river runoff in Xiaoxing’anling. Chin J Appl Ecol 16:2259-262 (in Chinese with English abstract)
  
• 作者单位：Wenbin Liu (1) (5)
  Tijiu Cai (2)
  Guobin Fu (3)
  Aijing Zhang (4)
  Changming Liu (1)
  Hongzhou Yu (2)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  5. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  2. Department of Ecology, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, China
  3. CSIRO, Land and Water, Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia
  4. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China
  
• ISSN：1866-6299

文摘

In this study, the hydro-climatic trends (1964-006) of Tangwang River basin (TRB) were examined using the Kendall’s test. Moreover, the impacts of climate variability and land use change on streamflow in each sub-basin were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. The results indicated that annual mean flow and peak flow showed insignificant decreasing trends (?.14?m3?s??year?, 1?%; ?.67?m3?s??year?, 40?%), while annual low flow exhibited a slightly increasing trend (0.02?m3?s??year?, 11?%). Correspondingly, the annual precipitation for the entire basin decreased by 0.02?mm?year?, while the annual means of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased significantly by 0.07, 0.10 and 0.02?°C?year?, respectively. On the other hand, with the implementation of “Natural Forest Protection Project-and “Grain for Green Project- the forests in TRB totally increased by 744.5?km2 (4.00?%) from 1980 to 2000. Meanwhile, the grasslands and the farmlands decreased by 378.0?km2 (?.98?%) and 311.9?km2 (?.63?%), respectively. Overall, land use changes played a more important role for the streamflow reduction than climate change for SUB1, SUB2 and SUB3, in which the primary conversions were from grassland, farmland and bare land to forests. Conversely, in SUB4, the influence of climate variability was predominant. The results obtained could be a reference for water resources planning and management under changing environment.