Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China

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• 作者：Baofu Li ; Yaning Chen ; Heigang Xiong
• 刊名：Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：123
• 期：1-2
• 页码：97-105
• 全文大小：663 KB
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• 作者单位：Baofu Li (1) (2)
  Yaning Chen (2)
  Heigang Xiong (3)
  
  1. College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, 276826, China
  2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
  3. College of Applied Arts and Science, Beijing Union University, Beijing, 100083, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
  Climate Change
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  
• 出版者：Springer Wien
• ISSN：1434-4483

文摘

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) have had on runoff change; however, the influence of temperature on runoff needs to be further studied. We attempted to employ the improved elasticity method to evaluate the effects of climate factors (CF, especially temperature) on runoff change for Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China. Data from Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff and CF during the period of 1960–2010. The key findings of this study indicated that the annual runoff had a significant (P < 0.01) increasing trend with a rate of 3.78 × 108 m3/decade, and the temperature and precipitation also exhibited significant rising trends, at a rate of 0.28 °C/decade (P < 0.01) and 15.11 mm/decade (P < 0.05), respectively, while PET showed a decreasing trend (22.66 mm/decade, P < 0.01). Step change point in runoff occurred in the year 1993. Thus, we employed the mean runoff and climate factors during the period 1960–1993 as the benchmark value to measure the change. In 1994–2010, mean runoff increased by 22 %. Results also revealed that temperature rising was the most important factor that increased runoff with contribution of 45 %, while precipitation and PET were responsible for 22 and 27 % of the runoff change, respectively, indicating that the runoff of increasing percentage only accounted for 6 % owing to human activities and other factors, and showed that climate variability was the main reason for the runoff change in Aksu River.