Variability of the Indian Ocean SST and its possible impact on summer western North Pacific anticyclone in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

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• 作者：Xingwen Jiang ; Song Yang ; Jianping Li ; Yueqing Li ; Haoran Hu ; Yi Lian
• 关键词：Indian Ocean ; Anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific ; NCEP Climate Forecast System
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：October 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：41
• 期：7-8
• 页码：2199-2212
• 全文大小：2181KB
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• 作者单位：Xingwen Jiang (1)
  Song Yang (2)
  Jianping Li (3)
  Yueqing Li (1)
  Haoran Hu (1)
  Yi Lian (4)
  
  1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, Guangdong, China
  3. National Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  4. Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun, Jilin, China
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provides important source of information about the seasonal prediction of climate over the Indo-Pacific oceans. In this study, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). They also investigate the impact of tropical IO SST on the summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNPAC), focusing on the relative contributions of local SST and remote forcing of tropical IO SST to WNPAC variations. The CFSv2 captures the two most dominant modes of summer tropical IO SST: the IO basin warming (IOBW) mode and the IO dipole (IOD) mode, as well as their relationship with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it produces a cold SST bias in IO, which may be attributed to deeper-than-observed mixed layer and smaller-than-observed total downward heat flux in the tropical IO. It also overestimates the correlations of ENSO with IOBW and IOD, but underestimates the magnitude of IOD and summer IOBW. The CFSv2 captures the climate anomalies related to IOBW but not those related to IOD. It depicts the impact of summer IOBW on WNPAC via the equatorial Kelvin wave, which contributes to the maintenance of WNPAC in July and August. The WNPAC in June is mostly forced by local cold SST, which is better predicted by the CFSv2 compared to July and August. The mechanism for WNPAC maintenance may vary with lead time in the CFSv2.