Beyond long-term averages: making biological sense of a rapidly changing world

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• 作者：Brian Helmuth ; Bayden D Russell ; Sean D Connell ; Yunwei Dong…
• 关键词：Climate adaptation ; Communication ; Ecological forecasting ; Experimental design ; Physiological ecology ; Mechanistic models ; Scale ; Species distribution modeling ; Weather
• 刊名：Climate Change Responses
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：December 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：1
• 期：1
• 全文大小：1483KB
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• 作者单位：Brian Helmuth (1) (2)
  Bayden D Russell (3) (4)
  Sean D Connell (3) (4)
  Yunwei Dong (2)
  Christopher DG Harley (5) (6)
  Fernando P Lima (7)
  Gianluca Sar谩 (8)
  Gray A Williams (10) (9)
  Nova Mieszkowska (11)
  
  1. Marine Science Center, Northeastern University, Nahant, MA, 01908, USA
  2. State Key Lab of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen, People鈥檚 Republic of China
  3. The Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
  4. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
  5. Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  6. Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  7. Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO), University of Porto, Vair茫o, Portugal
  8. Department of Earth and Marine Science, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
  10. School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
  9. The Swire Institute of Marine Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
  11. Marine Biological Association of the U.K., Plymouth, UK
  
• 刊物类别：Ecology; Applied Ecology; Landscape Ecology; Plant Ecology; Evolutionary Biology; Fish & Wildlife Bi
• 刊物主题：Ecology; Applied Ecology; Landscape Ecology; Plant Ecology; Evolutionary Biology; Fish & Wildlife Biology & Management;
• 出版者：BioMed Central
• ISSN：2053-7565

文摘

Biological responses to climate change are typically communicated in generalized terms such as poleward and altitudinal range shifts, but adaptation efforts relevant to management decisions often require forecasts that incorporate the interaction of multiple climatic and nonclimatic stressors at far smaller spatiotemporal scales. We argue that the desire for generalizations has, ironically, contributed to the frequent conflation of weather with climate, even within the scientific community. As a result, current predictions of ecological responses to climate change, and the design of experiments to understand underlying mechanisms, are too often based on broad-scale trends and averages that at a proximate level may have very little to do with the vulnerability of organisms and ecosystems. The creation of biologically relevant metrics of environmental change that incorporate the physical mechanisms by which climate trains patterns of weather, coupled with knowledge of how organisms and ecosystems respond to these changes, can offer insight into which aspects of climate change may be most important to monitor and predict. This approach also has the potential to enhance our ability to communicate impacts of climate change to nonscientists and especially to stakeholders attempting to enact climate change adaptation policies. Keywords Climate adaptation Communication Ecological forecasting Experimental design Physiological ecology Mechanistic models Scale Species distribution modeling Weather