Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

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• 作者：Brian P. Mulenga ; Ayala Wineman ; Nicholas J. Sitko
• 关键词：Climate change ; Coping and adaptation strategies ; Local knowledge ; Small ; scale agriculture ; Zambia
• 刊名：Environmental Management
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：59
• 期：2
• 页码：291-306
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environmental Management; Ecology; Nature Conservation; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Forestry Management; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Manageme
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1432-1009
• 卷排序：59

文摘

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters—notably, rising average temperature—there is a clear overlap between farmers’ observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.