Performance evaluation of the M8 algorithm to predict M7+ earthquakes in Turkey

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• 作者：Masoud Mojarab ; Hossein Memarian ; Mehdi Zare
• 关键词：Turkey ; M8 algorithm ; Earthquake prediction ; Time of increased probability ; Modified M8 algorithm
• 刊名：Arabian Journal of Geosciences
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：August 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：8
• 期：8
• 页码：5921-5934
• 全文大小：7,464 KB
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• 作者单位：Masoud Mojarab (1)
  Hossein Memarian (1)
  Mehdi Zare (2)
  
  1. School of Mining Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  2. Seismology Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-7538

文摘

The M8 algorithm is one of the most reliable intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms. The present study evaluates the ability of the M8 algorithm and its modified versions for predicting major events (M7+) in Turkey. Thirty different algorithms were developed by changing the radius of circle of investigation (CI) and the lower magnitude cutoff of the M8 algorithm. These modified algorithms were executed all over the territory of Turkey, and the results were evaluated using the error diagram. Each modified algorithm was executed for consecutive half-year intervals over a specified period of time. Subsequently, the seismic catalog was updated, and failures-to-predict ratio and the fraction of alarm were considered. Results showed that the location of areas of alarm change gradually over consecutive intervals, and no sudden changes can be observed. In addition, the annual changes of areas of alarm are not random and follow a pattern. This study also showed that the modified algorithm having a three to six annual average of events and a 393-km CI radius is an efficient algorithm for predicting the future seismic events in Turkey. This algorithm predicted six out of six target events, retrospectively, with a confidence level of 96.4 %. According to the obtained results, it will be possible to rely on this modified algorithm to predict near future earthquakes of Turkey. Furthermore, this study proves that it is possible to alter the M8 algorithm for being used in regional studies. Keywords Turkey M8 algorithm Earthquake prediction Time of increased probability Modified M8 algorithm