Two-Stage Interval-Parameter Stochastic Programming Model Based on Adaptive Water Resource Management

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• 作者：Qiang Fu ; Ke Zhao ; Dong Liu ; Qiuxiang Jiang ; Tianxiao Li…
• 关键词：Adaptive water resource management ; Uncertainty ; Adaptation ; Two ; stage interval ; parameter stochastic programming ; Water rights trading
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：6
• 页码：2097-2109
• 全文大小：391 KB
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• 作者单位：Qiang Fu (1)
  Ke Zhao (1)
  Dong Liu (1)
  Qiuxiang Jiang (1)
  Tianxiao Li (1)
  Changhong Zhu (1)
  
  1. School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Collaborative Innovation Centre of Promote Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province, Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture of Regular Institutions of Higher Education in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, 150030, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

Water resource planning is often associated with system complexities and uncertainties, such as issues of precipitation randomness and complex the complexity of human social activities. In this study, a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic programming (TISP) model in conjunction with an adaptive water resource management (AWRM) model was applied. Compared to other optimization models, AWRM can address interactions between different water users and account for regional water exchange processes, and TISP models overcome the uncertainties of a water resource system by introducing interval-parameter and probability distribution methods. Reasonable solutions obtained by applying these models to a multi-water-resource, multi-region case show that in AWRM models, water can flow from a region of low efficiency to a region of high efficiency, improving water use efficiency. Under conditions of extreme scarcity, water can flow in the opposite direction thus ensuring regional minimum water requirements, enhancing system stability and reducing the probability of system paralysis. In policy making, optimistic water policies correspond to higher incomes but may be subject to higher risks of system failure. Alternatively, conservative policies are associated with a lower risk of system failure but easily waste water resources.