Impending HRT wave precursors to the Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake and methods of earthquake impending prediction by using HRT wave

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• 作者：FuYe Qian (1)
  BiRu Zhao (2)
  Wei Qian (3)
  Jian Zhao (2)
  ShiGen He (4)
  HongKui Zhang (5)
  ShiYu Li (1)
  ShaoKun Li (6)
  GuLiang Yan (7)
  ChengMin Wang (8)
  ZhenKai Sun (1)
  DongNing Zhang (1)
  Jun Lu (9)
  Ping Zhang (10)
  GuoJun Yang (11)
  JiaLin Sun (12)
  ChunSheng Guo (4)
  YuXiong Tang (6)
  JianMing Xu (6)
  KunTao Xia (6)
  Hang Ju (6)
  BangHong Yin (6)
  Ming Li (1)
  DongSheng Yang (13)
  WeiLuo Qi (10)
  TaiMing He (1)
  HuaPing Guan (8)
  YuLin Zhao (1)
  
• 关键词：Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake ; HRT wave (mechanism) model ; PS ; 100 geo ; resistivity meter ; HRT wave precursor ; precursor consistency ; feasibility of short ; term and impending earthquake prediction
• 刊名：Science China Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2009
• 出版时间：October 2009
• 年：2009
• 卷：52
• 期：10
• 页码：1572-1584
• 全文大小：2278KB
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• 作者单位：FuYe Qian (1)
  BiRu Zhao (2)
  Wei Qian (3)
  Jian Zhao (2)
  ShiGen He (4)
  HongKui Zhang (5)
  ShiYu Li (1)
  ShaoKun Li (6)
  GuLiang Yan (7)
  ChengMin Wang (8)
  ZhenKai Sun (1)
  DongNing Zhang (1)
  Jun Lu (9)
  Ping Zhang (10)
  GuoJun Yang (11)
  JiaLin Sun (12)
  ChunSheng Guo (4)
  YuXiong Tang (6)
  JianMing Xu (6)
  KunTao Xia (6)
  Hang Ju (6)
  BangHong Yin (6)
  Ming Li (1)
  DongSheng Yang (13)
  WeiLuo Qi (10)
  TaiMing He (1)
  HuaPing Guan (8)
  YuLin Zhao (1)
  
  1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  2. Tianjin Hi-tech Development Co. Ltd, Tianjin, 300201, China
  3. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, L6C, 1V9, Toronto, Canada
  4. College of Disaster Prevention Techniques, Yanjiao, 065201, China
  5. Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, Beijing, 100080, China
  6. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, 610041, China
  7. Committee of National Development and Reformation, Beijing, 100824, China
  8. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100036, China
  9. China Earthquake Network Center, Beijing, 100036, China
  10. Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming, 650041, China
  11. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin, 300201, China
  12. Earthquake Administration of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Huhhot, 010010, China
  13. The Gucheng District Bureau, Lijiang, 674100, China
  
• ISSN：1869-1897

文摘

We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning (0- am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T 0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6- earthquakes, the natural period is about 1- hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth’s crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earthquake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra M w9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.