Maximum wind speed changes over China
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- 作者：Ying Jiang (1) (2)
Yong Luo (3) (4)
Zongci Zhao (3) (4) - 关键词：maximum wind speed ; change ; projection ; China
- 刊名：Acta Meteorologica Sinica
- 出版年：2013
- 出版时间：February 2013
- 年：2013
- 卷：27
- 期：1
- 页码：63-74
- 全文大小：1022KB
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Yong Luo (3) (4)
Zongci Zhao (3) (4)
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology of CMA, Chengdu, 610072, China
2. Public Meteorological Service Center of CMA, Beijing, 100081, China
3. Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
4. National Climate Center of China, Beijing, 100081, China - ISSN：2191-4788
文摘
In this study, the maximum wind speed (WSmax) changes across China from 1956 to 2004 were analyzed based on observed station data, and the changes of WSmax for 2046-065 and 2080-099 are projected using three global climate models (GFDL_CM2_0, CCCMA_CGCM3, and MRI_CGCM2) that have participated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The observed annual and seasonal WSmax and the frequency of gale days showed obvious declining trends. The annual WSmax decreased by approximately 1.46 m s per decade, and the number of gale days decreased by 3.0 days per decade from 1956 to 2004. The amplitudes of the annual and seasonal WSmax decreases are larger than those of the annual and seasonal average wind speeds (WSavg). The weakening of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons is the cause for the distinct decreases of both WSmax and WSavg over the whole China. The decrease of WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is related to the reduced intensity of cold waves in China and the decreasing number (and decreasing intensity) of land-falling typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The global climate models GFDL_CM2_0, MRI_CGCM2, and EBGCM (the ensemble of above mentioned three global climate models) consistently suggest that the annual and seasonal WSmax values will decrease during 2046-065 and 2080-099 relative to 1981-000. The models also suggest that decreases in WSmax for whole China during 2046-065 and 2080-099 are related to both the reduced intensity of cold waves and the reduced intensity of the winter monsoon, and the decrease in WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is corresponding to the decreasing number of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in the summer during the same periods.