Bayesian analysis of three indices for lagoons ecological status evaluation

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Alessio Pollice (1)
  Serena Arima (2)
  Giovanna Jona Lasinio (3)
  Alberto Basset (4)
  Ilaria Rosati (4)
  
  1. Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici ; Universit脿 degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro ; Largo Abbazia Santa scolastica 53 ; 70124聽 ; Bari ; Italy
  2. Dipartimento di Metodi e Modelli per l鈥橢conomia ; il Territorio e la Finanza ; Sapienza Universit脿 di Roma ; Via Castro Laurenziano 9 ; 00161聽 ; Rome ; Italy
  3. Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche ; Sapienza Universit脿 di Roma ; P.le Aldo Moro 5 ; 00185聽 ; Rome ; Italy
  4. Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali ; Universit脿 del Salento ; Prov.le Lecce-Monteroni ; 73100聽 ; Lecce ; Italy
  
• 关键词：Multivariate multiple regression ; Correlated responses ; Bayesian inference ; Ecosystem status
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：29
• 期：2
• 页码：477-485
• 全文大小：462 KB
• 参考文献：1. Arima S, Basset A, Jona Lasinio G, Pollice A, Rosati I (2013) A hierarchical bayesian model for the ecological status classification of lagoons. Ecol Model 263:187鈥?95 CrossRef
  2. Barbone E, Rosati I, Reizopoulou S, Basset A (2012) Linking classification boundaries to sources of natural variability in transitional waters: a case study of benthic macroinvertebrates. Ecol Indic 12:105鈥?22 CrossRef
  3. Basset A, Sabetta L, Fonnesu A, Mouillot D, Do Chi T, Viaroli P, Reizopoulou S, Carrada G (2006) Typology in mediterranean transitional waters: new challenges and perspectives. Aqua Conser Marine Freshwater Ecosys 16:441鈥?45 CrossRef
  4. Basset A, Barbone E, Borja A, Brucet S, Pinna M, Quintana X, Reizopoulou S, Rosati I, Simboura N (2012) A benthic macroinvertebrate size spectra index for implementing the water framework directive in coastal lagoons in mediterranean and black sea. Ecol Indic 12:72鈥?3 CrossRef
  5. Basset A, Barbone E, Elliott M, Li B, Jorgensen S, Lucena-Moya P, Pardo I, Mouillot D (2013) A unifying approach to understanding transitional waters: fundamental properties emerging from ecotone ecosystems. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci 132:5鈥?6 CrossRef
  6. Borja A, Franco J, Perez V (2000) A marine biotic index to establish the ecological quality of soft-bottom benthos within european estuarine and coastal environments. Marine Pollut Bull 40:110鈥?14 CrossRef
  7. Borja A, Franco J, Valencia V, Bald J, Muxika I, Belzunce M, Solaun O (2004) Implementation of the european water framework directive from the basque country (northern spain): a methodological approach. Marine Pollut Bull 48:209鈥?18 CrossRef
  8. Borja A, Barbone E, Basset A, Borgersen G, Brkljacic M, Garmendia J, Marques J, Mazik K, Muxika I, Neto J, Norling K, Rodriguez J, Rosati I, Rygg B, Texteira H, Trayanova A (2011) Response of single benthic metrics and multi-metric methods to anthropogenic pressure gradients, in five distinct europen coastal and transitional ecosystems. Marine Pollut Bull 62:499鈥?13 CrossRef
  9. Brynjarsd贸ttir A, Gelfand A (2014) On covariate importance for regression models with multivariate response. Submitted, pp 1鈥?7
  10. Clark JS, Bell DM, Kwit M, Powell, A, Zhu K (2013) Dynamic inverse prediction and sensitivity analysis with high-dimensional responses: Application to climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity. J Agri Biol Environ Statis 18:376鈥?04
  11. Gelman A, Meng XL, Stern H (1996) Posterior predictive assessment of model fitness via realized discrepancies. Statistica Sinica 6:733鈥?07
  12. Ji J-H, Chang N-B (2005) Risk assessment for optimal freshwater inflow in response to sustainability indicators in semi-arid coastal bay. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 19:111鈥?24 CrossRef
  13. Lucena-Moya P, Pardo I, Alvarez M (2009) Development of a typology of transitional waters in mediterranean ecoregion: the case of the islands. estuarine, coastal and shelf. Science 82:61鈥?2
  14. Marchini A, Marchini C (2006) A fuzzy logic model to recognise ecological sectors in the lagoon of venice based on the benthic community. Ecol Model 193:105鈥?18 CrossRef
  15. Meng XL (1994) Posterior predictive / p-values. Ann Statis 22(3):1142鈥?160 CrossRef
  16. Mistri M, Munari C (2008) Bits: a smart indicator for self-bottom, non-tidal lagoon. Marine Pollut Bull 56:597鈥?99 CrossRef
  17. Muxika I, Borja A, Bald J (2007) Using historical data, expert judgement and multivariate analysis in assessing reference conditions and benthic ecological status, according to the european water framework directive. Marine Pollut Bull 55:16鈥?9 CrossRef
  18. Piffady J, Parent E, Souchon Y (2013) A hierarchical generalized linear model with variable selection: studying the response of a representative fish assemblage for large european rivers in a multi-pressure context. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27:1719鈥?734 CrossRef
  19. Plummer M (2003) Jags: a program for analysis of bayesian graphical models using gibbs sampling. Proceedings of the 3rd international workshop on distributed statistical computing (DSC 2003), March. AUSTRIA, Vienna, pp 20鈥?2
  20. Sadiq R, Tesfamariam S (2008) Developing environmental indices using fuzzy numbers ordered weighted averaging (fn-owa) operators. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 22:495鈥?05 CrossRef
  21. Su S, Zhang Z, Xiao R, Jiang Z, Chen T, Zhang L, Wu J (2012) Geospatial assessment of agroecosystem health: development of an integrated index based on catastrophe theory. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26:321鈥?34 CrossRef
  22. Viaroli P, Mistri M, Trousselier M, Gierzoni S, Cardoso A (2005) Structure, functions and ecosystem alterations in southern european coastal lagoons. Hydrobiologia 550:57鈥?1 CrossRef
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Mathematical Applications in Environmental Science
  Mathematical Applications in Geosciences
  Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
  Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Geosciences
  Numerical and Computational Methods in Engineering
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-3259

文摘

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) recognizes benthic macroinvertebrates as a good biological quality element for transitional waters as they are the most exposed to natural variability patterns characteristic of these ecosystems, due to their life cycles and space-use behavior. In this paper we consider the performance of three multimetric indices (namely M-AMBI, BITS and ISS) based on benthic macroinvertebrates abundances, aiming at assessing the ecological status of lagoons and likely to respond differently to different sources of stress and natural variability. In order to investigate the possible contrasting behavior of the three multimetric indices, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model in which they are jointly modeled as functions of abiotic covariates, external anthropogenic pressure indicators and lagoon effects. The proposed model is applied to data from three lagoons in Apulia and assessed using multiple diagnostic tools. The joint sensitivity of lagoon quality evaluations to available covariates is thus investigated.