Seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic data applied to volcano-tectonic seismicity

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• 作者：R. Azzaro ; S. D’Amico ; T. Tuvè
• 刊名：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：July 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：14
• 期：7
• 页码：1813-1825
• 全文大小：10,102 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Hydrogeology
  Structural Geology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1456
• 卷排序：14

文摘

In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (I_ref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of “regional” events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with I_ref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the “design earthquake” and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.KeywordsVolcano-tectonic earthquakesMacroseismic intensitySeismic historyAttenuation modelsExceedance probabilitySeismic hazardDisaggregation analysisMt. EtnaItaly