Analysis of the Drava and Danube rivers floods in Osijek (Croatia) and possibility of their coincidence

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• 作者：Lidija Tadić ; Ognjen Bonacci ; Tamara Dadić
• 关键词：Flood ; Drava River ; Danube River ; Coincidence ; Copula function
• 刊名：Environmental Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：September 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：75
• 期：18
• 全文大小：3,602 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：None Assigned
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-6299
• 卷排序：75

文摘

The city of Osijek is situated on the right bank of the Drava River about 20 km away from its confluence with the Danube River. This good position was a prerequisite for its development, but throughout history, many floods caused by the Drava and Danube rivers have endangered Osijek and its citizens. Significant shortening of the river length by cutting meanders, river regulation structures together with the reduction in the natural floodplain were done during the nineteenth century. In the period between 1921 and 2013, there were 31 maximum annual water levels so high that flood warning systems were declared. The results of proposed hydrological analysis prove the presences of dominant Danube River backwater influences on flood occurrence in Osijek, especially in the last 40 years due to the decreasing trend of Drava River water levels and discharges and increasing trend of the Danube River water levels and discharges. The flood probability analysis shows (using a copula function) a very small probability of coincidence of maximum water levels in the Drava and the Danube, which is very important information for future flood risk management.