Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China
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- 作者：Peng Shi (1) (2) (3)
Xinxin Ma (2)
Yuanbing Hou (2)
Qiongfang Li (2)
Zhicai Zhang (2)
Simin Qu (2)
Chao Chen (2)
Tao Cai (2)
Xiuqin Fang (2) - 关键词：Land ; use/climate variabilities ; Xixian watershed ; Hydrological processes
- 刊名：Water Resources Management
- 出版年：2013
- 出版时间：March 2013
- 年：2013
- 卷：27
- 期：5
- 页码：1263-1278
- 全文大小：716KB
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Xinxin Ma (2)
Yuanbing Hou (2)
Qiongfang Li (2)
Zhicai Zhang (2)
Simin Qu (2)
Chao Chen (2)
Tao Cai (2)
Xiuqin Fang (2)
1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China, 210098
2. College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing, China, 210098
3. Spatial Sciences Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA - ISSN：1573-1650
文摘
Land use/land cover and climate change can significantly alter water cycle at local and regional scales. Xixian Watershed, an important agricultural area in the upper reach of the Huaihe River, has undergone a dramatic change of cultivation style, and consequently substantial land use change, during the past three decades. A marked increase in temperature was also observed. A significant monotonic increasing trend of annual temperature was observed, while annual rainfall did not change significantly. To better support decision making and policy analysis relevant to land management under climate change, it is important to separate and quantify the effect of each factor on water availability. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically based distributed hydrologic model, to assess the impact of Land use and climate changes separately. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for monthly streamflow. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and coefficient of determination (R 2) were 0.90, 6.3?%, and 0.91 for calibration period and 0.91, 6.9?%, and 0.911 for validation period, respectively. To assess the separate effect of land use and climate change, we simulated streamflow under four scenarios with different combinations of two-period climate data and land use maps. The joint effect of land use and climate change increased surface flow, evapotranspiration, and streamflow. Climate variability increased the surface water and stream-flow and decreased actual evapotranspiration; and land use change played a counteractive role. Climate variability played a dominant role in this watershed. The differentiated impacts of land-use/climate variabilities on hydrological processes revealed that the unapparent change in stream-flow is implicitly because the effects of climate variability on hydrological processes were offset by the effects of land use change.