When a hazard occurs where it is not expected: risk judgments about different regions after the Christchurch earthquakes

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：John McClure (1)
  David Johnston (2)
  Liv Henrich (1)
  Taciano L. Milfont (1)
  Julia Becker (2)
  
• 关键词：Risk judgment ; Optimism ; Earthquakes ; Personal experience ; Expectancy
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：January 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：75
• 期：1
• 页码：635-652
• 全文大小：517 KB
• 参考文献：1. Baker EJ (1991) Hurricane evacuation behavior. Int J Mass Emerg Disaster 9:287-10
  2. Beavan J, Fielding EJ, Motagh M, Samsonov S, Donnelly N (2011) Fault location and slip distribution of 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake from geodetic data. Seismol Res Lett 82(6):789-99
  3. Becker JS (2010) Understanding disaster preparedness and resilience in Canterbury: results of interviews, focus groups and a questionnaire survey. GNS Science, Wellington, Report No. 2010/50
  4. Blank H, Musch J, Pohl RF (2007) Hindsight bias: on being wise after the event. Soc Cognit 25:1-. doi:10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.1 CrossRef
  5. Brody SD, Zahran S, Vedlitz A, Grover H (2007) Examining the relationship between physical vulnerability and public perceptions of global climate change in the United States. Environ Behav 40:72-5. doi:10.1177/0013916506298800 CrossRef
  6. Buhayar N (2011) Quake adds to pressure for higher reinsurance prices after Australia flood. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/new-zealand-earthquake-may-boost-asia-pacific-reinsurance-prices.html
  7. Burger JM, Palmer ML (1992) Changes in and generalization of unrealistic optimism following experiences with stressful events: reactions to the 1989 California earthquake. Pers Soc Psychol Bull 18(1):29-3. doi:10.1177/0146167292181006 CrossRef
  8. Carroll P, Sweeny K, Shepperd JA (2006) Forsaking optimism. Rev General Psychol 10(1):56-3. doi:10.1037/1089-2680.10.1.56 CrossRef
  9. Celsi R, Wolfinbarger M, Wald D (2005) The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals-perceptions of earthquake risk. Earthq Spectra 21(4):87-20. doi:10.1193/1.2099047 CrossRef
  10. Coleman R, Thorson E (2002) The effects of news stories that put crime and violence into context: testing the public health model of reporting. J Health Commun 7(5):401-25. doi:10.1080/10810730290001783 CrossRef
  11. Cowan J, McClure J, Wilson M (2002) What a difference a year makes: how immediate and anniversary media reports influence judgments about earthquake. Asian J Social Psychol 5(3):169-85. doi:10.1111/1467-839X.00102 CrossRef
  12. Dillon RL, Tinsley CH (2008) How near-misses influence decision making under risk: a missed opportunity for learning. Manag Sci 54(8):1425-440 CrossRef
  13. Dillon RL, Tinsley CH, Cronin M (2011) Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective response to hurricanes. Risk Anal 31(3):440-49. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01506.x CrossRef
  14. Donovan B, Robins T (2008) Aftershock (Television Movie). TV3, New Zealand
  15. Eiser JR, Pahl S, Orins YRA (2001) Optimism, pessimism and the directions of self-other comparisons. J Exp Soc Psychol 36(1):77-4. doi:10.1006/jesp.2000.1438 CrossRef
  16. Greening L, Dollinger SJ (1992) Illusions (and shattered illusions) of invulnerability: adolescents in natural disaster. J Trauma Stress 5(1):63-5. doi:10.1002/jts.2490050107 CrossRef
  17. Halpern-Felsher BL, Millstein SG, Ellen JM et al (2001) The role of behavioral experience in judging risks. Health Psychol
• 作者单位：John McClure (1)
  David Johnston (2)
  Liv Henrich (1)
  Taciano L. Milfont (1)
  Julia Becker (2)
  
  1. School of Psychology, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
  2. Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University/GNS Science, Wellington, New Zealand
  
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Research on risk judgments about hazards has not examined risk perception inside and outside the affected regions when a disaster occurs in an unexpected location. This research examined preparedness and judgments of earthquake risk after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in three New Zealand cities: Christchurch, Wellington, and Palmerston North. We selected Christchurch, because its citizens did not expect an earthquake (but it occurred there); Wellington, because its citizens expected an earthquake (but it did not occur there); and Palmerston North, because its citizens did not expect an earthquake (and it did not occur there) and is thus comparable to Christchurch before the earthquakes. The research examined the relation of participant city to risk assessments for before (recall) and after the earthquakes, participants-attributions for their risk judgments and for (not) preparing, and earthquake damage for Christchurch participants. Participants reported that prior to the earthquakes, they saw an earthquake as more likely in Wellington than in Christchurch and Palmerston North. In all three samples, expectations of another earthquake in Christchurch were significantly higher after the Christchurch earthquakes. Palmerston North expectancies of a local earthquake were also higher after the earthquakes, whereas Wellington citizens-expectancies of a local earthquake were only marginally higher. Preparations increased after the earthquakes, particularly in Christchurch. These findings suggest that prior expectancies and disaster experiences affect earthquake risk judgments and preparation inside and outside the affected region.