Predicting new service adoption with conjoint analysis: external validity of BDM-based incentive-aligned and dual-response choice designs

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• 作者：Nils Wlömert ; Felix Eggers
• 关键词：Conjoint analysis ; Dual response ; No ; choice option ; Incentive alignment ; Choice models ; External validity
• 刊名：Marketing Letters
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：27
• 期：1
• 页码：195-210
• 全文大小：346 KB
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• 作者单位：Nils Wlömert (1)
  Felix Eggers (2)
  
  1. Institute of Marketing, Research Center for Media and Communication, University of Hamburg, Welckerstr. 8, 20354, Hamburg, Germany
  2. Department of Marketing, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, Netherlands
  
• 刊物类别：Business and Economics
• 刊物主题：Economics
  Marketing
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-059X

文摘

In this paper, we compare the standard, single-response choice-based conjoint (CBC) approach with three extended CBC procedures in terms of their external predictive validity and their ability to realistically capture consumers’ willingness to pay: (1) an incentive-aligned CBC mechanism (IA-CBC), (2) a dual-response CBC procedure (DR-CBC), and (3) an incentive-aligned dual-response CBC approach (IA-DR-CBC). Our empirical study features a unique sample of 2,679 music consumers who participated in a conjoint choice experiment prior to the market entry of a new music streaming service. To judge the predictive accuracy, we contacted the same respondents again 5 months after the launch and compared the predictions with the actual adoption decisions. The results demonstrate that IA-CBC and DR-CBC both increase the predictive accuracy. This result is promising because IA-CBC is not applicable to every research context so that DR-CBC provides a viable alternative. While we do not find an additional external validity improvement through the combination of both extensions, the IA-DR-CBC approach yields the most realistic willingness-to-pay estimates and should therefore be preferred when incentive alignment is feasible. Keywords Conjoint analysis Dual response No-choice option Incentive alignment Choice models External validity