Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

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• 作者：Ran Liu ; Changlin Chen ; Guihua Wang
• 关键词：tropical cyclone heat potential ; global warming ; CMIP5 ; OGCM
• 刊名：Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：33
• 期：4
• 页码：504-510
• 全文大小：2,744 KB
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• 作者单位：Ran Liu (1)
  Changlin Chen (1)
  Guihua Wang (1)
  
  1. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, 310012, China
  
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics/Geodesy;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1861-9533

文摘

Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary. Keywords tropical cyclone heat potential global warming CMIP5 OGCM