Effects of stratification and misspecification of covariates on species distribution models for abundance estimation from virtual line transect survey data

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• 作者：Yasutoki Shibata (1) (6)
  Takashi Matsuishi (2)
  Hiroto Murase (3)
  Koji Matsuoka (4)
  Takashi Hakamada (4)
  Toshihide Kitakado (5)
  Hiroyuki Matsuda (1)
  
• 关键词：Antarctic minke whale ; Line transect estimator ; Measurement performance of estimators ; Statistical model ; Stratification of survey region
• 刊名：Fisheries Science
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：July 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：79
• 期：4
• 页码：559-568
• 全文大小：578KB
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• 作者单位：Yasutoki Shibata (1) (6)
  Takashi Matsuishi (2)
  Hiroto Murase (3)
  Koji Matsuoka (4)
  Takashi Hakamada (4)
  Toshihide Kitakado (5)
  Hiroyuki Matsuda (1)
  
  1. Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan
  6. Hachinohe Laboratory, Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 25-259, Shimomekurakubo, Same-machi, Aomori, 031-0841, Japan
  2. Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, 041-8611, Japan
  3. National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan
  4. The Institute of Cetacean Research, 4-5 Toyomi-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-0055, Japan
  5. Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, 4-5-7 Konan, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8477, Japan
  

文摘

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of stratification of the survey region on the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) described by generalized linear models or generalized additive models when estimating school abundance by using a line transect survey. True covariates that define spatial school distribution are not always obtainable explanatory variables. When the true covariates differ from explanatory variables in the model, the explanatory variables are determined to be misspecified. We evaluated the performance of SDMs in abundance estimation with misspecified covariates by using dummy datasets for which the true abundance was known. Simulated replicates of spatial distributions of a whale school and sighting data were generated from possible scenarios motivated by the spatial school distribution of Antarctic minke whales Balaenoptera bonaerensis. This distribution was obtained from the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic. Our results showed that the relative bias of the abundance estimators was large when covariates were misspecified and a survey region was stratified. Although stratification of the survey region is intended to produce a conventional line transect estimator with a smaller variance than that of non-stratified survey region, it also acts to increase the bias of the abundance estimate obtained from SDMs.