Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

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• 作者：A. J. Adeloye ; B.-S. Soundharajan ; C. S. P. Ojha ; R. Remesan
• 关键词：Climate change ; Genetic algorithms ; Hedging ; Reservoir operation ; Reservoir performance evaluation ; Rule curves
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：2
• 页码：445-470
• 全文大小：1,378 KB
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• 作者单位：A. J. Adeloye (1)
  B.-S. Soundharajan (1)
  C. S. P. Ojha (2)
  R. Remesan (3)
  
  1. Institute for Infrastructure and Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
  2. Department of Civil Engineering, IIT-Roorkee, Roorkee, India
  3. Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Bedford, UK
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

This study has evaluated the effects of improved, hedging-integrated reservoir rule curves on the current and climate-change-perturbed future performances of the Pong reservoir, India. The Pong reservoir was formed by impounding the snow- and glacial-dominated Beas River in Himachal Pradesh. Simulated historic and climate-change runoff series by the HYSIM rainfall-runoff model formed the basis of the analysis. The climate perturbations used delta changes in temperature (from 0° to +2 °C) and rainfall (from −10 to +10 % of annual rainfall). Reservoir simulations were then carried out, forced with the simulated runoff scenarios, guided by rule curves derived by a coupled sequent peak algorithm and genetic algorithms optimiser. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The results show that the historic vulnerability reduced from 61 % (no hedging) to 20 % (with hedging), i.e., better than the 25 % vulnerability often assumed tolerable for most water consumers. Climate change perturbations in the rainfall produced the expected outcomes for the runoff, with higher rainfall resulting in more runoff inflow and vice-versa. Reduced runoff caused the vulnerability to worsen to 66 % without hedging; this was improved to 26 % with hedging. The fact that improved operational practices involving hedging can effectively eliminate the impacts of water shortage caused by climate change is a significant outcome of this study. Keywords Climate change Genetic algorithms Hedging Reservoir operation Reservoir performance evaluation Rule curves